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Assessment of outcomes based on the use of PIM-supported foresight modeling work, 2012-2018
This report presents results of a study to assess the use of foresight modeling tools and outputs produced since 2012 and funded through Flagship 1, Cluster 1.1 of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The goal of this study is to examine how the tools and outputs of foresight modeling supported by PIM through Flagship 1 (hereafter “PIM-supported foresight modeling”) have been used by stakeholders. The study aims to identify as many uses of and outcomes from the PIM-supported foresight modeling as possible. It is by no means comprehensive, but it does cover usage by a wide range of stakeholders from across the CGIAR system, other international organizations, academia, and national governments.
Economic Evaluation of the Diamer-Basha Dam
This paper describes the potential impact on the economy of Pakistan of building the Diamer-Basha dam. An integrated system of economic and water simulation models is applied to Pakistan to analyze the economywide impacts of changes in water resources in the Indus river basin, focusing on agricultural and hydropower benefits provided by the Diamer-Basha dam under different climate scenarios. The model framework links separate economic and water models, drawing on the strengths of both approaches without having to compromise by specifying either a simplified treatment of water in an economic model or simplified economics in a water model. The model system is used to simulate the impact of economic growth and changes in water resources over the long run, focusing on agriculture and hydropower. The results of scenario analysis indicate that the Diamer-Basha dam would improve the resilience of Pakistan to adapt to climate shocks, providing increased hydropower capacity and enhanced ability to manage the water system to offset climate-induced variation in river flows.
Agriculture and the Rural Economy in Pakistan
Historically, agriculture has been crucial to Pakistan's economic growth and development and remains so even today. The sector employs almost half of the country's labor force, supplies key inputs to the country's manufacturing sector, generates a significant share of export earnings, and nourishes a rapidly growing population. Further, beyond agriculture is the wider rural economy, including nonfarm economic activities such as small enterprises, transport services, village retail shops, local schools, and clinics, all of which account for an estimated 40 to 57 percent of total rural household income. Given the importance of these rural activities, the slow growth of agriculture in recent ye...
Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models
In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.
Transactions of the Pathological Society of London
List of members in vol. 2-58.
Greenhouse Gases: Sources, Sinks and Mitigation
This book begins with a brief background on greenhouse gases sources and sinks and continues with a discussion in different sectors including forest fluxes to human health and modeling techniques to policy measures. The chapters explore in detail about the GHG emission budgets, mitigation strategies, technical advancement and input-output analysis. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) occur naturally in our atmosphere and are essential to the survival of most of the organisms on the planet earth. GHGs such as such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone etc. play a major role in balancing the radiative budget, by absorbing or emitting some of the infrared rays reflecting from the earth’s s...
Determinants of resilience for food and nutrition security in South Sudan
The paper analyzes the determinants of long-term individual and community resilience for food and nutrition security in South Sudan using data from multiple sources including key informant interviews, household and community surveys, and georeferenced secondary data on climate, agricultural production, irrigation, and market access. Major agricultural development constraints as well as incidence of and responses to shocks and conflict are described. Climate-crop modeling and simulation methods are used to evaluate the constraints and to identify crop investment options. Then, a spatial typology of food and nutrition security is used to evaluate the constraints along the production-to-nutriti...
A land accounting model for IMPACT (with early results)
Understanding the global distribution of agricultural production provides valuable context for policymaking concerning development, wellbeing, and climate change. The IMPACT model generates broad regional aggregations of agricultural production and how much land would be needed, but a much more fine-grained picture would be helpful. The basic building blocks of such a companion system are presented here. Describing site specific land use and cropping choices as they are currently realized is a difficult proposition. Projecting them into the future is an even more challenging task. A key problem is that none of the simple “right” ways adequately mimic observed behavior. We present a mix of theoretical and heuristic approaches that bring together climate data, cost of access, and crop modeling results, to develop pixel level allocations of crops and natural lands consistent with economic simulations from the IMPACT model. We find that climate change is much more of a threat to natural land types than agricultural expansion into such locations.
