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Government at Risk
Many governments have faced serious instability as a result of their contingent liabilities. But conventional public finance analysis and institutions fail to address such fiscal risks. This book aims to provide motivation and practical guidance to governments seeking to improve their management of fiscal risks. The book addresses some of the difficult analytical and institutional challenges that face reformers tooling up to manage government fiscal risks. It discusses the inadequacies of conventional practices as well as recent advances in dealing with fiscal risk.
Tax Expenditures, Shedding Light on Government Spending Through the Tax System
Discusses conceptual and methodological issues relating to tax expenditures, provides a framework for evaluating them, offers case studies on government treatment of tax expenditures from developed and transition economies, and outlines generally applicable policy options. Provides case studies of the treatment of tax expenditures in Australia, Belgium, Canada, China, the Netherlands, Poland, and the United States. Each chapter presents how the nation defines tax expenditures and the corresponding benchmark tax system.
Public-Private Partnerships, Government Guarantees, and Fiscal Risk
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) refer to arrangements under which the private sector supplies infrastructure assets and infrastructure-based services that traditionally have been provided by the government. PPPs are used for a wide range of economic and social infrastructure projects, but they are used mainly to build and operate roads, bridges and tunnels, light rail networks, airports and air traffic control systems, prisons, water and sanitation plants, hospitals, schools, and public buildings. PPPs offer benefits similar to those offered by privatization, which is the sale of government-owned enterprises or assets. By the late 1990s, when privatization was losing much of its earlier m...
Public-private Partnerships in the New EU Member States
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are popular around the world, in part because they allow governments to secure much-needed investment in public services without immediately having to raise taxes or borrow. Yet, PPPs pose a fiscal danger because a government's desire to avoid reporting immediate liabilities may blind it to future fiscal costs and risks. Although PPPs may not blemish governments' reported fiscal statements in the short term, they do create fiscal obligations. This increases fiscal vulnerability and can result in poorly-designed PPPs. The extent of the danger depends on the fiscal institutions that shape and constrain government decisions toward PPPs. Such fiscal institutions affect decisionmaking incentives. Better fiscal institutions therefore can increase the chance that PPPs will be well designed and appropriately used.
Government Guarantees
The book considers when governments should give guarantees to private investors. After describing the history of guarantees, and the challenges the politics and psychology create for good decisions, the book sets out a principles for allocating risk (and therefore guarantees), techniques for valuing guarantees, and rules to encourage good decisions.
Public Finances and Economic Transition
This paper analyzes developments in general government expenditures and revenues for 26 reforming ex-socialist economies (RESEs) over the period 1989-1994. The data indicate that, rather than uniformly converging to a “Western European” norm, RESEs have followed a variety of patterns, depending on how successful they have been in economic reform in general and in tackling the increase in the demand for social protection in particular. The paper conducts an empirical investigation of spending patterns and the sustainability of revenues required to maintain current government spending, and concludes that there are strong indications that the fiscal accounts will remain under pressure in a number of RESEs in the foreseeable future.
East Asia Decentralizes
This report states that the future of East Asian countries depends on the capacity and performance of local and provincial governments. Decentralization has unleashed local initiative and energy, with new ways to deliver services to people, with potential for continued improvement. The report, which focuses on six countries, notes the differences in the approach to decentralizing government in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam
Contingent Liabilities from Banks
In this paper, we develop a methodology to assess potential losses to the government that could arise from bank failures. The approach is intended to be simple, parsimonious, and used in real time. It generates an index that we call the banking sector contingent liability index (BCLI), based on the banking sector’s size, concentration, diversification, leverage, and riskiness of assets. The index is illustrated for 32 advanced and emerging market economies from 2006 to 2013, as well as a group of banks including global systemically important banks (G-SIBs).
A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Fiscal Risks - Sources, Disclosure, and Management
A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.
