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Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Sovereign Asset and Liability Management in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Uruguay
This paper provides an overview of the strategic and operational issues as well as institutional challenges, related to the implementation of the Sovereign Asset and Liability Management (SALM) approach. Application of an SALM framework allows the authorities to identify and monitor sovereign exposure mismatches; increase resilience to foreign currency and interest rate risks; and thus, strengthen financial stability; and implement more cost-effective management of the public-sector debt. The analysis is based on emerging market (EM) countries and illustrated by the experience of Uruguay, using data as of end-2017.
The Development of Local Capital Markets
Capital markets can improve risk sharing and the efficiency with which capital is allocated to the real economy, boosting economic growth and welfare. However, despite these potential benefits, not all countries have well developed capital markets. Moreover, government-led initiatives to develop local capital markets have had mixed success. This paper reviews the literature on the benefits and costs of developing local capital markets, and describes the challenges faced in the development of such markets. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations emerging from this literature.
The Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy
This report to the Boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) is the third in a series regarding the evolution of the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework and the associated capacity building efforts. In 2007 the two Boards endorsed the development of the MTDS and ancillary tools, and mandated a program of technical assistance to help countries build capacity in this area. This endorsement and mandate reflect a recognition that sound debt management is critical both to macroeconomic stability and to the development and functioning of the financial sector. The IMF and the WB have collaborated to deliver a large volume of MTDS-based technical assis...
Developing the Domestic Government Debt Market
Domestic government debt markets play a critical role in managing public debt effectively and reducing the vulnerability of developing countries to financial crises. Many aspects of debt markets - money, primary, and secondary markets; a diversified investor base; and sound securities custody and settlement systems and regulation - interact in complex ways and are affected by previous policies and developments. Developing the Domestic Government Debt Market: From Diagnostics to Reform Implementation draws insights from a joint pilot program set up by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to design relevant reform and capacity-building programs in twelve countries. The experiences of...
Botswana
Growth is expected to slow in 2023 due to a projected decline in diamond production, with the weaker global environment likely to depress other exports. Inflation has fallen since August 2022, returning to the central bank’s objective range. The authorities plan a fiscal expansion in FY2023 followed by two years of substantial fiscal adjustment to reach a small fiscal surplus by FY2025, but implementation risks are elevated. The external position should soften over the medium term, with FX reserves stabilizing at 51⁄2 months of imports. The financial sector is broadly sound and stable.
Guidance Note On The Financing Assurances And Sovereign Arrears Policies And The Fund's Role In Debt Restructurings
Under its Articles of Agreement, the Fund may only provide financing to assist members to resolve their balance of payments problems and restore medium-term external viability and may only do so under adequate safeguards. The Fund’s inter-related policies on financing assurances, debt sustainability, and debt restructuring are relevant for restoring medium-term external viability. This note is designed as a reference and primer on these key sovereign debt-related Fund policies. It focuses on how to establish that a program is “fully financed” (i.e., the financing assurances policy), how to handle arrears owed by a member to its official and private creditors (i.e., the lending into arrears policies), and how to establish safeguards for continued Fund lending at the stage of program reviews (i.e., financing assurances reviews). It also provides guidance on the more general role of the Fund in debt-restructuring situations. It is the first comprehensive operational guidance on these policies, replacing the guidance previously available at the departmental level. The relevant Fund Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
Albania
This paper discusses the Financial System Stability Assessment report on Albania. The IMF report states that the Albanian economy is weak, macroeconomic imbalances are large, and the financial sector faces several risks. Capital-to-asset ratios are sizable, but banks hold large amounts of government bonds that expose banks to sizeable losses in case of a sovereign debt re-pricing and balance sheets have deteriorated as a result of a rapid increase of nonperforming loans (NPLs). The authorities have taken steps to reduce the existing stock of NPLs with technical assistance from the World Bank.
Guidance Note For Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets
This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.
First-Time International Bond Issuance—New Opportunities and Emerging Risks
International bond issuance by debut issuers has risen in recent years. The uptick was a result of both demand and supply factors. The search for yield and demand for portfolio diversification have resulted in demand-driven easy financing conditions. At the same time, rising financing needs for many debut issuers, coupled with reduced access to concessional financing, relatively undeveloped domestic markets, and a favorable interest rate environment have made international bonds an attractive financing alternative for many countries. As bonds issued in the international markets are typically denominated in hard currencies, have large volumes and a bullet structure, exposure to exchange rate and refinancing risk has increased. Therefore, risk-mitigating policy actions are needed to prepare for redemption, support debt sustainability, and secure adequate debt management capacity.
