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IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile Versus Non-Fragile States
This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries from 2009 to 2022, focusing on how macroeconomic targets and their achievement differ between fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS. Key findings include similar program targets for FCS and non-FCS, optimism in all dimensions considered other than inflation, and no significant correlation between targets and outcomes. For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes. This underscores the challenges in setting realistic, country and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries. Finally, we discuss potential caveats, including GDP rebenchmarking, non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets, and repeat programs. We do not study, and make no claims about, causality.
Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts
We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy’s degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts.
Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
The Routledge Handbook of Modern Turkey
In recent years, there has been growing interest in Turkey, stemming from the country’s developing role in regional and global politics, its expanding economic strength, and its identity as a predominantly Muslim country with secular political institutions and democratic processes. This Handbook provides a comprehensive and wide-ranging profile of modern Turkey. Bringing together original contributions from leading scholars with a wide range of backgrounds, this important reference work gives a unique in-depth survey of Turkish affairs, past and present. Thematically organised sections cover: Turkish history from the early Ottoman period to the present Turkish culture Politics and international relations Social issues Geography The Turkish economy and economics Presenting diverse and often competing views on all aspects of Turkish history, politics, society, culture, geography, and economics, this handbook will be an essential reference tool for students and scholars of Middle East studies, comparative politics, and culture and society.
Turkish Migration Conference 2015 Selected Proceedings
This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the 3rd Turkish Migration Conference (TMC). TMC 2015 was hosted by Charles University Prague, Czech Republic from 25 to 27 June 2015. The TMC 2015 was the third event in the series that we were proud to organise and host at Charles University Prague. This selection of papers presented at the conference are only a small portion of contributions. Many other papers are included in edited books and submitted to refereed journals in due course. There were a total of about 146 papers by over 200 authors presented in 40 parallel sessions and three plenary sessions at Jinonice Campus of Charles University Prague. About a fıfth of the sessions at the conference were in Turkish language although the main language was English. Therefore some of the proceedings are in Turkish too. The keynote speakers included Douglas Massey of Princeton University, Caroline Brettell of Southern Methodist University, and Nedim Gürsel of CNRS.
Copper and Bronze in Art
This is a review of 190 years of literature on copper and its alloys. It integrates information on pigments, corrosion and minerals, and discusses environmental conditions, conservation methods, ancient and historical technologies.
Dam Engineering
Dams and their auxiliary structures are built to provide water for human consumption, irrigating lands, generating hydroelectric power, and use in industrial processes. They are critical structures for continuing life and providing public safety. Construction of a dam is a complicated task that requires sophisticated modern technology and technical expertise. Scientists need to review and adjust their perspectives on designing embankments and their related structures, and compaction and consolidation of fill material, behavior of concrete materials, geotechnical and seismological studies of the dam site, total risk analysis, safety monitoring and instrumentation, heightening, hydrological studies, soil conservation, and watershed management. This book intends to provide the reader with a comprehensive overview of the latest information in dam engineering.
Wastewater Treatment Using Green Synthesis
Wastewater Treatment Using Green Synthesis discusses advances in wastewater treatment with a focus on biological processes. Major topics discussed include bioremediation through microorganisms, green and iron-based nanoparticles in wastewater treatment, TiO2 Doped Lignocellulosic Biopolymer with an emphasis on their photodegradation potential for a variety of pollutants, and permanent film growth. It further includes remediation of industrial sludges/effluents with a particular emphasis on biological treatment, phytoremediation, and de-ballasting water treatment technology. Features: Focuses on the implementation of effective wastewater treatment with orientation towards biological processes...
