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Validation of Risk Management Models for Financial Institutions
A comprehensive book on validation with coverage of all the risk management models.
Cyber Risk and Financial Stability
The ability of attackers to undermine, disrupt and disable information and communication technology systems used by financial institutions is a threat to financial stability and one that requires additional attention.
A New Spirit of Capitalism
Capitalism represents the greatest engine of material well-being that the world has ever seen. But scepticism about its viability has grown across the political spectrum, on the back of rising inequalities, climate change and digital disruptions. This book joins the debate about the crisis of capitalism—not by blindly defending the system, but by advocating concrete proposals to put it on a more socially and environmentally sustainable path. Too often, conversations about the future of capitalism consider it as a homogeneous socio-economic system whose features vary little from one location to another; this commonly leads to one-size-fits-all recommendations to address capitalism’s flaws. The contributors to this book, by contrast, look at the transition needed from the perspective of capitalism’s multi-faceted nature, in response to challenges including the green transition, the digital revolution and spiralling inequalities. These present difficult trade-offs in terms of growth, efficiency and stability, which each capitalist model will solve differently.
Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.
Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore
Cyber risk is an emerging source of systemic risk in the financial sector, and possibly a macro-critical risk too. It is therefore important to integrate it into financial sector surveillance. This paper offers a range of analytical approaches to assess and monitor cyber risk to the financial sector, including various approaches to stress testing. The paper illustrates these techniques by applying them to Singapore. As an advanced economy with a complex financial system and rapid adoption of fintech, Singapore serves as a good case study. We place our results in the context of recent cybersecurity developments in the public and private sectors, which can be a reference for surveillance work.
Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top-Down Stress Testing Perspective
The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests.
Measuring the Impact of a Failing Participant in Payment Systems
Banks and financial market infrastructures (FMIs) that are not able to fulfill their payment obligations can be a source of financial instability. This paper develops a composite risk indicator to evaluate the criticality of participants in a large value payment system network, combining liquidity risk and interconnections in one approach, and applying this to the TARGET2 payment system. Findings suggest that the most critical participants in TARGET2 are other payment systems, because of the size of underlying payment flows. Some banks may be critical, but this is mainly due to their interconnectedness with other TARGET2 participants. Central counterparties and central securities depositories are less critical. These findings can be used in financial stability analysis, and feed into central bank policies on payment system access, oversight, and crisis management.
Eyewitnesses Speak Out Against Denial
The testimonials in this book are excerpts from letters received in reply to questions submitted in 1992-94 by the Working Group Against Antisemitism/Holbein-Schule to Jewish emigrants from Frankfurt who were students of this and other schools in the Nazi period. The replies show the anti-Jewish atmosphere in the schools in the 1930s. Some accounts describe the subjects' emigration, or else deportation to concentration camps. Pp. 177-187 contain documents pertaining to implementation of Nazi anti-Jewish policies in the German schools. Intended for young readers.
Europe Beyond the Euro
This book observes that a key determinant of Europe’s welfare over the coming decades will be how the region manages crises, both financial and societal. It examines how key institutional developments, such as Economic and Monetary Union, reflected differentiated integration (DI) in the EU, but argues that modern-day risks are highly interconnected, and their management therefore has to be inclusive. In that connection it looks in particular at the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), whose mandate to protect financial stability also gives it relevance with regard to other crises. The book considers that the strengthening of this institution, and bringing it to the fore, would help EU member states, as well as countries around the EU including applicant nations, to manage financial and societal risks, including COVID-19 and the transition to a green economy, thus safeguarding the economies of Europe. It builds on a model of the EU allowing for DI in some activities, while ensuring sound governance arrangements between those inside and those outside that activity, and embodying inclusivity in the fundamentals of the EU, including in the management of risk.
The Global Bank Stress Test
This paper presents the framework underlying the Global Bank Stress Test (GST) and applies it to recent data and global scenarios to illustrate the usefulness of the framework in assessing the potential impact of global shocks on banks around the world. The results of this latest update of the GST continue to point to relatively lower levels of resilience of banks in emerging market economies (EMs) than in advanced economies (AEs).
