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The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy
This paper studies the fiscal multiplier using a small-open-economy DSGE model enriched with financial frictions. It shows that the multiplier is large when frictions are present in domestic and international financial markets. The reason is that in the model government bonds are more liquid than private financial assets and that entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints. A bond-financed fiscal expansion eases these constraints and stimulates investment and hence growth. This mechanism, however, breaks down under the assumption of perfect international capital mobility, suggesting that conventional models which ignore the presence of frictions in international capital markets tend to underestimate the fiscal multiplier.
The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy
This paper studies the fiscal multiplier using a small-open-economy DSGE model enriched with financial frictions. It shows that the multiplier is large when frictions are present in domestic and international financial markets. The reason is that in the model government bonds are more liquid than private financial assets and that entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints. A bond-financed fiscal expansion eases these constraints and stimulates investment and hence growth. This mechanism, however, breaks down under the assumption of perfect international capital mobility, suggesting that conventional models which ignore the presence of frictions in international capital markets tend to underestimate the fiscal multiplier.
Guatemala
This Selected Issues paper analyzes remittances and households’ behavior in Guatemala. Remittances are a structural feature of the Guatemala economy. In 2017, remittance flows accounted for over 11 percent of GDP and benefitted over 1.5 million of Guatemalan households. The effects of remittances on the labor supply are estimated. There is no evidence of remittance-induced work disincentives. The results suggest that the labor supply for members of remittance-receiving households is relatively more elastic, most markedly so for the 41-65 age group: a one percent increase in weekly wages leads to a 0.5 percent increase in weekly hours worked for members of remittance-receiving households, versus 0.2 percent increase for non-remittance-receiving households.
Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks - Best Practices
Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualit...
Can Fintech Foster Competition in the Banking System in Latin America and the Caribbean?
This paper revisits the competitive environment of the banking system in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and investigates the early impact of fintech development in the region thus far. Against the backdrop of high net interest margins (NIMs) and limited financial depth in the region, panel regressions broadly confirm results of existing literature on the association of NIMs with the changes in the financial sector structure, including market concentration, administrative costs, and foreign banks, although differences between domestic and foreign banks narrowed after the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. Difference-in-difference regressions and case studies on Brazil and Mexico suggest that fintech is associated with a reduction in NIMs and defensive responses by incumbent banks that benefit consumers. The case studies also shed light on regulatory approaches and prudential considerations in fostering financial innovation and banking sector competition.
Costa Rica
Costa Rica has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, notwithstanding the authorities’ proactive policy response and the country’s well-established universal healthcare system. The socio-economic impact has been significant, exacerbating an already fragile outlook and pre-existing imbalances, with a significant toll on economic activity and unemployment—especially among women and the young. The shock has further weakened the country’s fiscal position, undermining the expected yields from the ambitious fiscal reform launched in late 2018, and generated a large financing gap. Financial support through the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) in 2020 provided temporary relief to respond to the pandemic, including by catalyzing financial assistance from other official partners, but financing needs remain sizable over the medium term.
Cabo Verde
This Selected Issues paper examines whether the recent slowdown in private sector credit growth in Cabo Verde is demand or supply driven. Although in the late 2000s, demand factors have been the main drivers in Cabo Verde’s credit market, supply dynamics’ role has increased in recent years. For Cabo Verde to promote private sector-led growth and sustainable economic development, reforms aiming at strengthening both credit demand and supply will be essential. These include improving the business environment for the private sector as well as strengthening the financial sector by ensuring prudent banking supervision and an effective resolution of the nonperforming loan overhang.
Zambia
This Selected Issues paper assesses the sustainability of Zambia’s current fiscal policies and public debt. Large fiscal imbalances and rapid increase in government debt since 2011 have raised concern about the sustainability of fiscal policies in Zambia. Fueled by the rapid exchange rate depreciation in 2014–15 and the heavy reliance on external sources to finance the growing fiscal imbalances, public external debt doubled in 2015 compared with 2014. The institutional framework for the budget process and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework need to be strengthened. Poor commitment controls, which led to significant accumulation of payment arrears, need to be addressed. A sound Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy is required to reduce public sector debt vulnerability.
Making Public Debt Public—Ongoing Initiatives and Reform Options—Background Paper
This Background Paper provides technical information to accompany the main paper “Making Public Debt Public: Ongoing Initiatives and Reform Options”. It provides further empirical evidence of benefits of public debt transparency and elaborates on two elements that can be used to enhance it: (i) sound practices in public debt management and (ii) available international data standards and publicly available debt databases.
The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology
This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.
