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Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine
This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.
Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States
This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.
The Millennial Generation
In 2015, for the first time, millennials outnumbered baby boomers as the largest generational segment of the U.S. population. This report describes how the intelligence community must engage millennials across multiple segments to succeed in the future: millennials as intelligence clients, employees, and partners and as members of the public.
Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine
This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.
Gaming Gray Zone Tactics
The RAND Arroyo Center developed a strategic-level structured card game examining a gray zone competition between Russia and the West in the Balkans to better understand the nature of a gray zone competition with Russia.
Designing a Strange Game
This report details the theoretical motivation and design of a wargame meant to address the lack of serious games that consider nuclear weapon employment and tools available to teach stakeholders about the challenges of nuclear weapon employment. The game is aimed at players of all experience levels and will be of interest to those in the policymaking community, the nuclear enterprise, and students of nuclear deterrence theory.
Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia
U.S. forward military posture can both deter and provoke armed conflict, and a similar logic pertains below the level of armed conflict. The authors of this report identify how forward posture could deter hostile measures in the competition space below the level of armed conflict through several mechanisms, particularly focusing on the presence of U.S. ground forces.
Using Social Media to Extract Information about Chemical Weapons Incidents
Policymakers across the federal government have begun to recognize the potential of social media as a source of information and have commissioned studies to explore how social media can improve disaster situational awareness, influence public opinion, augment traditional data sources, and counter disinformation. In this project, RAND Corporation researchers developed an approach for analyzing social media data to derive insights about chemical incidents and conducted a proof of concept of that approach by applying it to the case of chemical weapons employment in Syria between 2017 and 2018. They identified a four-step process: (1) Identify operationally relevant factors and examine known events to find incident indicators, (2) develop a feed of social media data, (3) conduct automated daily scans for elevated keyword use in Twitter data, and (4) analyze posts to verify detection and extract information. The procedure showed promise. Based on the analysis, it is recommended that the Defense Threat Reduction Agency initiate three activities to further the development of this procedure.
Deterrence under Uncertainty:
For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades? Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.
State of Threat
Increasing US&– China tensions, Russia' s invasion of Ukraine, disruptions to supply chains and maritime trade, right-wing extremism, gangs and the drug trade . . . The international and domestic security environment is dynamic and fraught. In State of Threat, local and international academics and sector experts discuss the issues facing New Zealand across defence, diplomacy, intelligence, policy, trade and border management.This timely and up-to-date analysis of New Zealand' s most important security issues is a must-read for policy analysts, those working in risk management and industry leaders across all sectors of the economy.
