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Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine
This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.
Power and Complacency
Introduction -- Russia -- Iran -- China -- The United States -- Conclusions.
Extending Russia
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. It examines Russian vulnerabilities and anxieties; analyzes potential policy options to exploit them; and assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood of successful implementation.
Cyber Resilience of the Central Bank Digital Currency Ecosystem
Over 100 central banks around the globe are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to modernize payment systems. They aim to explore potential benefits, risks, and the broad range of new capabilities CBDCs might offer. Some view CBDC exploration as an opportunity to rethink their existing, legacy payment systems and build a resilient and secure infrastructure using modern technologies. However, a CBDC creates a vast and complex ecosystem that amplifies existing risk exposures and surfaces new ones. Given the implications of issuing a CBDC, it should be seen as a fundamental change in the way the central bank operates. This note considers experiences from live CBDCs and is informed by experiments conducted by central banks and international institutions for domestic use. It also draws from cybersecurity and resilience frameworks from standard-setting bodies.
Complex Battlespaces
The conduct of warfare is constantly shaped by new forces that create complexities in the battlespace for military operations. This inaugural volume of the Lieber Studies Series seeks to address several issues in the confluence of law and armed conflict, featuring chapters from world class scholars, policymakers and other government officials; military and civilian legal practitioners; and other thought leaders who examine the role of the law of armed conflict in current and future armed conflicts around the world.
Special Operations and National Security
This book focuses on strategic special operations and how these have led to the achievement of major foreign policy goals, which is illustrated by six case studies. The study specifically focuses on the alignment of the policies, strategies, and tactics that dominated these operations, providing a fresh perspective. Theoretically, the work underscores the continued relevance of relative superiority as the dominant theory in the field. Importantly, it aligns the potential ways of achieving and sustaining relative superiority with the ability to conduct contemporary special operations across multiple domains, thereby generating cross-dimensional effects. In terms of methodology, the book inclu...
Russia's Hostile Measures
This report examines current Russian hostile measures in Europe and forecasts how Russia might threaten Europe using these measures over the next few years. This report observes that Russia has the most strategic interest in influencing western Europe, but it has the most leverage over countries of eastern Europe, and offers a range of recommendations for the U.S. government and for the U.S. Army on countering hostile measures.
Institution Building in Weak States
The effort to improve state institutions in post-conflict societies is a complicated business. Even when foreign intervention is carried out with the best of intentions and the greatest resources, it often fails. What can account for this failure? In Institution Building in Weak States, Andrew Radin argues that the international community’s approach to building state institutions needs its own reform. This innovative book proposes a new strategy, rooted in a rigorous analysis of recent missions. In contrast to the common strategy of foreign interveners—imposing models drawn from Western countries—Radin shows how pursuing incremental change that accommodates local political interests is...
Deterrence Under Uncertainty:
For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades? Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.
Post-Soviet Conflicts
In the 30 years since the emergence of the post-Soviet conflicts things have both changed and remained the same – continuities and changes in post-Soviet conflicts are the primary themes of this volume – it addresses all major wars, civil wars, and rebellions in the former Soviet Union. The volume focuses on factors that have contributed or may contribute to the resolution of the post-Soviet conflicts, most of which have represented rather long and damaging crises. In all conflict cases Moscow has been guided by Russian state interests – some have been instigated or fueled, others driven to a frozen state, and still a couple of others have been constructively resolved due to Moscow’s...
