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Promoting Inclusive Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
CCA countries achieved gains in inclusiveness over the past 20 years as incomes increased and poverty, inequality, and unemployment declined. Most of the progress occurred before the 2008–09 global financial crisis. Since then, poverty rates have barely moved and, for oil importers, remain elevated.
The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania
What lessons can be drawn from the unprecedented growth and spectacular collapse of financial pyramid schemes in Albania? This paper discusses the origins of the pyramid schemes and the way the authorities handled them. It also analyzes the economic effects of the pyramid schemes, concluding that despite the descent into anarchy triggered by the schemes’ collapse their direct effects on the economy are difficult to specify and appear to have been limited. Finally, the paper argues that prevention of pyramid schemes is better than cure, and that governments and international financial institutions should be vigilant in clamping down on frauds.
Pros and Cons of Currency Board Arrangements in the Lead-Up to EU Accession and Participation in the Euro Zone
Historically, countries with currency board arrangements (CBAs) have experienced lower inflation and higher growth than those with other regimes. The experiences of three candidates for EU membership with CBAs (Estonia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria) have also been generally favorable. Can CBAs serve these transition countries well all the way up to the adoption of the euro? After considering the pros and cons, this paper provides an affirmative answer, but notes that to preserve the viability of their CBAs throughout the process, these countries need to maintain strict policy discipline and be prepared to deal with large capital inflows and asymmetric shocks.
Republic of Tajikistan
This paper presents key findings of the Sixth Review for Tajikistan under the Extended Credit Facility. Real GDP growth for 2011 reached 7.4 percent, driven mainly by agriculture, construction, and services. The authorities plan to maintain a conservative fiscal stance in line with the macroeconomic framework agreed during recent reviews, targeting a deficit of 0.5 percent of GDP. The fiscal stance for 2012 remains appropriate, but further consolidation will be necessary over the medium term to maintain fiscal and external sustainability.
Ghana
This paper highlights Ghana’s poverty reduction strategy. The paper also highlights Ghana’s performance in observing the requirements for reaching the floating completion point under the framework, including implementation of the national poverty reduction strategy. The updated debt sustainability analysis shows that the amount of debt relief estimated at the decision point will be sufficient to bring the country’s debt burden indicators to manageable levels. The sensitivity analysis shows that, after completion point, Ghana’s debt sustainability would be robust to moderate country-specific shocks, even of a persistent nature.
IMF Staff papers
In the middle of 1985 Argentina and Israel launched frontal attacks on inflation which succeeded in reducing it drastically during the first year without very significant costs in employment and output. Despite basic differences in the countries’ structures, the programs were similar in their design and their effects. This paper covers some of these similarities in the implementation and the results of the two stabilization programs, and analyzes the rationale of the underlying conception of the plans. The focus is on the strategy for the transitional period, and the ability of the programs to sustain price stability.
Witches, Westerners, and HIV
A witch's curse, an imperialist conspiracy, a racist plot—HIV/AIDS is a catastrophic health crisis with complex cultural dimensions. From small villages to the international system, explanations of where it comes from, who gets it, and who dies are tied to political agendas, religious beliefs, and the psychology of devastating grief. Frequently these explanations conflict with science and clash with prevention and treatment programs. In Witches, Westerners, and HIV Alexander Rödlach draws on a decade of research and work in Zimbabwe to compare beliefs about witchcraft and conspiracy theories surrounding HIV/AIDS in Africa. He shows how both types of beliefs are part of a process of blaming others for AIDS, a process that occurs around the globe but takes on local, culturally specific forms. He also demonstrates the impact of these beliefs on public health and advocacy programs, arguing that cultural misunderstandings contribute to the failure of many well-intentioned efforts. This insightful book provides a cultural perspective essential for everyone interested in AIDS and cross-cultural health issues.
Georgia
The new government is committed to prudent macroeconomic policies and to enhancing Georgia’s business-friendly environment. Large external liabilities plus its high current account deficit remain the main sources of vulnerability, and reducing these in an orderly manner is a key macroeconomic challenge. Greater exchange rate flexibility should help align its monetary policy and exchange rate decisions more closely with its inflation. Maintaining central bank independence and increasing monetary policy transparency are welcomed by the Executive Directors. The impressive structural agenda aims at improving the business environment and at boosting competitiveness.
Norway
Norway’s near-term macroeconomic priority is to reduce risks arising from high-household debt by tightening macroprudential standards for mortgage lending while undertaking tax reforms to gradually reduce incentives for excessive leverage. Creating a stronger institutional framework for acroprudential policy would also assist risk mitigation in the future. With the output gap closing, fiscal tightening is needed over the medium term in the central scenario to rebuild precautionary buffers and ensure that fiscal guidelines are met on average over the cycle.
Lesotho
This paper examines Lesotho’s Sixth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Real GDP growth slowed to 31⁄4 percent in 2003/04 (April-March) owing to the adverse impact of drought on agricultural output and slower-than-envisaged growth in the construction sector. Fiscal performance in 2003/04 was stronger than envisaged in the program, partly reflecting temporary factors. All quantitative performance criteria for December 2003 and indicative targets for March 2004 were met. The IMF staff supports the key macroeconomic objectives of the authorities’ budget for 2004/05.
