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Promoting Inclusive Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
CCA countries achieved gains in inclusiveness over the past 20 years as incomes increased and poverty, inequality, and unemployment declined. Most of the progress occurred before the 2008–09 global financial crisis. Since then, poverty rates have barely moved and, for oil importers, remain elevated.
Macroprudential Policies to Enhance Financial Stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
Jordan
Jordan: Selected Issues
Jordan
Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s economy continues to grow, albeit at a moderate pace, and the outlook is generally positive. Inflation is slowing in response to the tightening of monetary policy and lower commodity prices, and is expected to end 2023 at 2.7 percent, from its peak of 5.4 percent in September 2022. The current account deficit is projected to narrow this year, although less than projected earlier, and international reserves to remain at a comfortable level. Notwithstanding these positive trends, job creation remains a challenge, and unemployment remains very high.
Georgia
This Selected Issues paper assesses macroeconomic and structural reforms in Georgia. The government’s reform package includes a fiscal policy within a declining deficit path which intends to incentivize private investment, a scaling up of public investment, improvement in government’s efficiency, and an education reform. Based on modeling analysis, the implementation of this package will provide significant benefits to the economy. Over the long term, real GDP is estimated to be about 5 percent higher than in the baseline and—in the path toward the new equilibrium—annual growth about 0.7 percentage points higher over the medium term. The education reform has sizeable effects, but they only come into effect in the long term.
Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia
As in other regions in the world, countries in MENAP and CCA regions are exposed to tightening in global financing conditions and ongoing global trade tensions. The former has already begun to impact several emerging market economies in MENAP and could have more severe implications should financial market sentiment suddenly deteriorate. Escalating global trade tensions will have a limited direct and immediate impact on these regions but could impart significant strains over time through negative effects on trading partners and through market confidence effects.
Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia
The Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries are at an important juncture in their economic transition. Following significant economic progress during the 2000s, recent external shocks have revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of the current growth model. Lower commodity prices, weaker remittances, and slower growth in key trading partners reduced CCA growth, weakened external and fiscal balances, and raised public debt. the financial sector was also hit hard by large foreign exchange losses. while commodity prices have recovered somewhat since late 2014, to boost its economic potential, the region needs to find new growth drivers, diversify away from natural resources, remittances, and public spending, and generate much stronger private sector-led activity.
Eruptions of Popular Anger
Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath sets out to answer three puzzles—the “Arab inequality†? puzzle of civil uprisings in countries with low-to-moderate and stagnant economic inequality, the “unhappy development†? paradox of increasing dissatisfaction at a time of moderate-to-rapid development, and the paradox of political violence in middle-income countries. The book’s empirical investigation rules out high and rising inequality as a reason for the Arab Spring uprisings. It shows that the real problem was the erosion in middle-class incomes and the growing dissatisfaction with the quality of life, the shortage of formal sector jobs, and ...
Republic of Azerbaijan
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Azerbaijan highlights that the economy is continuing to recover from a banking crisis and recession. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to reach 2.7 percent in 2019 on strong hydrocarbon production and robust domestic demand, benefitting from new spending measures. Gradual and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation is needed to strengthen intergenerational and precautionary buffers while mitigating the adverse impact on the economy. Consolidation could rely on prioritizing and improving the efficiency of spending, rationalizing tax policy, and improving revenue administration. Reducing administrative burden for businesses, encourag...
