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Command Decision
"This monograph considers how a classical challenge that commanders face in war -- namely, making critical decisions on the basis of limited and often unreliable information -- has been exacerbated in the era of big data. Data overload complicates the intelligence community's efforts to identify and exclude disinformation, misinformation, and deception, and thus hampers its ability to deliver reliable intelligence to inform decision-makers in a timely manner. The military commander remains responsible for making a final decision, yet the great wealth of data now available through the intelligence cycle amplifies the risk of decision paralysis. With this in mind, technological solutions tend ...
The Russian Challenge
The war in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin's bid to overturn the post-Cold War international settlement in Europe, have forced many Western governments to reappraise their approach to Russia. Until 2003, it was widely believed that a modernizing Russia might be accommodated into the international system as a constructive and benign actor. Variations on this view have given way to the realization that Russia, on its present course, cannot be a partner or ally, and that differences outweigh any common interests. Russia needs reform, but the domestic political obstacles to it are daunting. At the same time, if Moscow maintains its current course, in both economic management and international relations, this will be increasingly dangerous for Europe and costly, if not disastrous, for Russia. The questions addressed in this report are how far those costs will rise, whether Russia can bear them, what will happen if it cannot, and how the West should respond in the near and longer term.
Waking the Neighbour
"Because of both history and geography, the Finnish relationship with Russia is unique in Europe. At the same time the Finnish perception of Russia as a source of security challenges is acute. Finland is engaged in a debate over whether it would be desirable to seek membership of NATO in order to mitigate these challenges. A full and frank debate has been difficult because it is constrained by a range of political and societal taboos; nevertheless there are indicators that a move toward NATO is not impossible in the foreseeable future. If Finland were to opt for joining NATO, this would register in Russian defence and security thinking as a serious concern. Unlike the Baltic accession in 200...
Putin's World
In this revised version that includes an exclusive new chapter on the Russia-Ukraine war, renowned foreign policy expert Angela Stent examines how Putin created a paranoid and polarized world—and increased Russia's status on the global stage. How did Russia manage to emerge resurgent on the world stage and play a weak hand so effectively? Is it because Putin is a brilliant strategist? Or has Russia stepped into a vacuum created by the West's distraction with its own domestic problems and US ambivalence about whether it still wants to act as a superpower? Putin's World examines the country's turbulent past, how it has influenced Putin, the Russians' understanding of their position on the gl...
Russian Ballistic Missile Defense
Russia's actions in Ukraine are not the only challenge to relations with the United States. U.S. plans for ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability in Europe have led to aggressive rhetoric from Moscow, which continues at the time of this writing even though attention in the West is focused almost exclusively on Ukraine. Russia's strenuous opposition to the U.S. European Phased Adaptive Approach plans is based on claims that this capability is intended to compromise Russia's nuclear deterrent capability. Most of these claims have been dismissed as groundless. Yet, all discussion of the subject highlights the U.S. current and proposed deployments, and entirely ignores Russia's own missile i...
The Russian Understanding of War
This book analyzes the evolution of Russian military thought and how Russia's current thinking about war is reflected in recent crises. While other books describe current Russian practice, Oscar Jonsson provides the long view to show how Russian military strategic thinking has developed from the Bolshevik Revolution to the present. He closely examines Russian primary sources including security doctrines and the writings and statements of Russian military theorists and political elites. What Jonsson reveals is that Russia's conception of the very nature of war is now changing, as Russian elites see information warfare and political subversion as the most important ways to conduct contemporary...
The World Information War
This book outlines the threats from information warfare faced by the West and analyses the ways it can defend itself. Existing on a spectrum from communication to indoctrination, information can be used to undermine trust, amplify emotional resonance, and reformulate identities. The West is currently experiencing an information war, and major setbacks have included: ‘fake news’; disinformation campaigns; the manipulation of users of social media; the dissonance of hybrid warfare; and even accusations of ‘state capture’. Nevertheless, the West has begun to comprehend the reality of what is happening, and it is now in a position defend itself. In this volume, scholars, information prac...
The Lockhart Plot
This is the extraordinary story of the British plot in the summer of 1918 to overthrow the Bolshevik government in Russia, murder the Bolshevik leaders, and install a new government in Moscow that would re-open the war against the Germans on the Eastern Front. Conceived by the British envoy to the Bolsheviks, Robert Bruce Lockhart, a dashing, cynical, urbane 30-year-old Scot, and involving French, American, and Russian accomplices, the planultimately failed - which is why it has until now remained shrouded in mystery. It was a plot in which the fate of the Revolution and the future shape of world history were upfor grabs, and the story behind it is a thrilling one involving a game of cat and mouse with the Bolshevik secret police, the Cheka, as well as murder, attempted murder, and a passionate love affair between Lockhart and one of his Russian accomplices, the beautiful Russian aristocrat Moura von Benckendorff.
Russia's War on Everybody
Russia pushes for more power and influence wherever it can reach. How Russia Gets Its Way explores how, why, and what this has meant, not just for governments, but for ordinary people. Based on years of research into Russia's methods, the book brings together investigations into the military, politics, diplomacy, espionage, cyber power and organised crime to describe how Moscow conducts its campaigns across the globe, and how nobody is too unimportant to be caught up in them. From the Skripal poisoning, and the attempts to assassinate Alexey Navalny, to Russia's most recent invasion of Ukraine, this book describes in new detail not only how Russia undertakes its campaigns of espionage and armed conflict, but also why it gets away with it. Author Keir Giles has spent his career studying the Russian challenge and how best to meet it, as Moscow once again seeks to undermine its adversaries by any means it can. With eye-witness accounts from a dozen countries, and interviews with leading counterterrorism figures, How Russia Gets Its Way brings to life the daily struggle going on to protect countries, governments, businesses, societies and ordinary people from Russian hostility.
