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An Assessment of the Potential for Coal-derived Syncrudes in Canada
Within the context of Canada's future energy demand and declining conventional crude oil production, this report examines recent advances in coal liquids technology and assesses the potential role of coal-derived synthetic fuels in the evolving energy technology mix. The model used in this study allocates, on an optimal basis, all the relevant Canadian energy resources - conventional and frontier crude oil, natural gas, bitumen, and coal - among the potentially available technologies and also over time. The supply cost analysis, production and on-stream development scenarios presented for upgraders, mined oil sands plants and coal liquids facilities are based on a complete re-assessment of the potential costs of all of the major energy supply options, measured against a re-evaluation of the Institute's CREED model and a linear programming model developed by the Alberta Research Council. A detailed evaluation, undertaken by the MITRE Corp. in the U.S., of recent advances in direct coal liquefaction together with a study published by the Electric Power Research Institute on coal/oil co-processing, formed the basis of the state-of-the-art coal liquids technology.
Canadiana
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Stability Within Uncertainty
Provides a brief discussion of world oil market developments since the early 1970s, identifying the fundamental characteristics and features of the market through to the end of this century. It also examines the history and current structure of world oil demand, analyzed in terms of demand for crude oil products in the various regions. A number of key factors and fundamental trends in crude oil consumption are identified, which can be expected to play an important role in future oil demand. In addition, the study provides an examination of the history and current structure of world crude oil supply, emphasizing the methodology employed in representing crude oil production, reserves additions and productive capacity development within the analytical framework. A series of sensitivity cases are presented together with the reference case crude oil market scenario generated by the integration of the demand- and supply-side analyses. Finally, the study's authors draw together the critical conclusions arising from the analysis.
