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Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics
Assembling some of the leading figures in the field of macroeconomics, this text highlights the continuing influence of the ideas of Edmund Phelps since the early 1960s. The contributions address many of the most important current areas of macroeconomic research in 2003.
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
The New Book of Apples
This extraordinary book contains in one unique volume, the most wide-ranging history of apples ever written and a detailed survey of over 2,000 of the world's apple varieties. Beautifully illustrated with 32 exquisite colour paintings, the last edition of this book received many accolades and was quickly recognised as a classic. Complete with a fully revised directory covering all the varieties of apple to be found in the world's largest apple collection, The New Book of Apples includes full historical, geographical and botanical details as well as tasting notes on each type of apple. Exploring the role of apples in cooking, cider making, gardening, myth and medicine, this is an indispensable reference guide.
Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations
Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.
