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Robustness
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Handbook of Financial Econometrics
This collection of original articles—8 years in the making—shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume. - Presents a broad survey of current research—from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activity - Contributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometricians - Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections
Rational Expectations Econometrics
At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.
Uncertainty Within Economic Models
"Studying this work in real time taught me a lot, but seeing it laid out in conceptual, rather than chronological, order provides even clearer insights into the evolution of this provocative line of research. Hansen and Sargent are two of the best economists of our time, they are also among the most dedicated teachers in our profession. They have once again moved the research frontier, and with this book provide a roadmap for the rest of us to follow. This is a must-have for anyone interested in modeling uncertainty, ambiguity and robustness."Stanley E ZinWilliam R Berkley Professor of Economics and BusinessLeonard N Stern School of BusinessNew York UniversityWritten by Lars Peter Hansen (No...
A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017
A major, new, and comprehensive look at six decades of macroeconomic policies across the region What went wrong with the economic development of Latin America over the past half-century? Along with periods of poor economic performance, the region’s countries have been plagued by a wide variety of economic crises. This major new work brings together dozens of leading economists to explore the economic performance of the ten largest countries in South America and of Mexico. Together they advance the fundamental hypothesis that, despite different manifestations, these crises all have been the result of poorly designed or poorly implemented fiscal and monetary policies. Each country is treated...
The Money Illusion
The first book-length work on market monetarism, written by its leading scholar. Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It’s happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of the 21st century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of problems such as housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays the groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish.
Shipping at Cardiff
One of the greatest treasures in the archives of the Welsh Industrial and Maritime Museum is the Hansen Collection, consisting of over 4500 negatives of shipping taken at Cardiff Docks between 1920 and 1975. Lars Peter Hansen, a native of Copenhagen, settled in Cardiff in 1891 and he and his third son Leslie established a photographic business in the docks; taking pictures of ships for sale to seamen and shipowners was an important part of their business. Following the retirement of Leslie Hansen in 1975, the museum purchased the negative collection. Its historical value cannot be overstated and this album is intended as a tribute to the Hansens, who through their work have bequeathed to Wales a pictorial record of shipping activity at the nation's premier port.
Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
New Flora of the British Isles
New Flora of the British Isles is the standard work on British plant identification. It is designed to be user-friendly, serving as a practical database for taxonomists, ecologists, conservationists, plant geographers, teachers and students, as well as for amateur botanists and plant hunters. The Flora includes all native, naturalised and crop plants, and all recurrent casuals. Over 150 pages of specially prepared illustrations are provided to aid identification of critical groups and less familiar alien taxa. Technical terms are kept to an essential minimum. In this new edition the text has been revised thoroughly throughout and adjustments made to many of the illustrations to ensure that the work is fully up-to-date. Over 200 species and subspecies have been added, together with numerous extra hybrids, bringing the total number of taxa covered to over 4500.
Dynamic Factor Models
This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
