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Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation
The thesis analyzes the effect that the sample size, the asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the leverage in their volatility have on the estimation and forecasting of market risk in financial assets. The goal is to compare the performance of a variety of models for the estimation and forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for a set of assets of different nature: market indexes, individual stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and commodities. The three chapters of the thesis address issues of greatest interest for the measurement of risk in financial institutions and, therefore, for the supervision of risks in the financial system. They deal with technical issues r...
Essays on Risk and Uncertainty in Economics and Finance
This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy ...
La financiación de las pyme europeas: su relación con el entorno bancario e institucional
Las pequeñas y medianas empresas (pyme) suelen encontrar grandes dificultades en el acceso a la financiación que necesitan para el desarrollo de su actividad empresarial. Estas empresas, en comparación con aquellas de mayor tamaño, son percibidas como empresas de alto riesgo debido a que sus estados financieros no suelen estar auditados, a la falta de un amplio historial crediticio o a la ausencia de activos que ofrecer como garantías. Estas características agravan las asimetrías informativas y los problemas de agencia y, como consecuencia, las pyme acaban experimentando graves restricciones financieras. Sin embargo, las decisiones de financiación de las pyme no sólo dependen de sus...
Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Risk Topography
The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.
Copula Methods in Finance
Copula Methods in Finance is the first book to address the mathematics of copula functions illustrated with finance applications. It explains copulas by means of applications to major topics in derivative pricing and credit risk analysis. Examples include pricing of the main exotic derivatives (barrier, basket, rainbow options) as well as risk management issues. Particular focus is given to the pricing of asset-backed securities and basket credit derivative products and the evaluation of counterparty risk in derivative transactions.
Macroprudential Regulatory Policies
Papers, comments, and special keynote addresses presented at the 13th annual International Banking Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the International Monetary Fund, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Sept. 23-24, 2010. The subject of the conference was Macroprudential regulatory policies: the new road to financial stability?
Modelling Financial Time Series
This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts. This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key a...
Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading
A straightforward guide to the mathematics of algorithmic trading that reflects cutting-edge research.
Managing and Measuring Risk
Ch. 1. An evolutionary perspective on the concept of risk, uncertainty and risk management / Oliviero Roggi and Omar Ottonelli -- ch. 2. Toward a bottom-up approach to assessing sovereign default risk: an update / Edward I. Altman and Herbert Rijken -- ch. 3. Measuring systemic risk / Viral V. Acharya ... [et al.] -- ch. 4. Taxing systemic risk / Viral V. Acharya ... [et al.] -- ch. 5. Liquidity and efficiency in three related foreign exchange options markets / Menachem Brenner and Ben Z. Schreiber -- ch. 6. Illiquidity or credit deterioration: a study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises / Nils Friewald, Rainer Jankowitsch and Marti G. Subrahmanyam -- ch. 7. ...
