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This paper examines the World Economic Outlook forecasting record for the principal performance indicators for the major industrial countries and corresponding aggregates and for groups of non-oil developing countries. Several criteria were used in evaluating the forecasts: the computation and evaluation of various summary statistics of forecast accuracy, bias, and efficiency; comparisons with alternative forecasts—naive forecasts and forecasts produced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and by national forecasting agencies; the examination of turning-point errors and forecast performance in defined episodes; and, finally, some attempt to explain forecast error in terms of unanticipated developments in policy variables and oil prices. In judging the forecast performance of the World Economic Outlook, a number of points must be kept in mind. Most important, it has to be recognized that the period since the inception of the World Economic Outlook as a regular forecasting exercise has been extraordinarily rich in economic upheavals, which have made the odds against accurate forecasting formidable.
Reprint of the original, first published in 1875.
Dubois' oratorio was given its premiere on Good Friday (April 19), 1867 at glise de la Madeleine in Paris under the composer's direction. Although first published in 1886 by Georges Hartmann of Paris, the vocal score presented here is a digitally enhanced reprint of the one first produced in 1899 by G. Schirmer of New York, with an English translation beneath the original Latin text by Theodore Baker (1851-1934). This score has been carefully reviewed, with measure numbers and rehearsal letters added. It is now completely compatible with the widely available full score and orchestral parts issued by Edwin F. Kalmus. The large (A4) size makes it particularly easy to read for choruses both at both professional and community levels. IMSLP page All Music Guide
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The Saint-Simonians, whose movement flourished in France between 1825 and 1835, are widely recognized for their contributions to history and social thought. Until now, however, no full account has been made of the central role of the arts in their program. In this skillful interdisciplinary study, Ralph P. Locke describes and documents the Saint-Simonians' view of music as an ideological tool and the influence of this view on musical figures of the day. The disciples of Claude Henri de Rouvroy, comte de Saint-Simon, believed that increased industrial production would play a crucial role in improving the condition of the working masses and in shifting power from the aristocratic "drones" to t...
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