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By Other Means Part I
The United States is being confronted by the liabilities of its strength. Competitors are finding avenues for threatening U.S. interests without triggering escalation. Their approaches lie in the contested arena between routine statecraft and open warfare—the "gray zone." The United States has yet to articulate a comprehensive approach to deterring competitors in the gray zone. A concrete and actionable campaign plan is needed to deal with the gray zone challenge; in order to do so, the United States must identify and employ a broad spectrum of tools and concepts to deter, and if needed, to compete and win contestations in the gray zone.
By Other Means Part II
Geopolitical competition is increasingly playing out in the space beyond diplomacy and short of conventional war, sometimes referred to as the gray zone, which is forcing the United States to confront the liabilities of its strengths. This report assesses current U.S. government actions to deter, campaign through, and respond to competitors’ gray zone tactics. Using the campaign planning framework established in By Other Means Part I, it also provides recommendations aimed at ameliorating U.S. liabilities and building on its asymmetries to improve U.S. national security in the presence of rivals’ gray zone approaches.
Under the Nuclear Shadow
Improvements to strategic situational awareness (SA)—the ability to characterize the operating environment, detect and respond to threats, and discern actual attacks from false alarms across the spectrum of conflict—have long been assumed to reduce the risk of conflict and help manage crises more successfully when they occur. However, with the development of increasingly capable strategic SA-related technology, growing comingling of conventional and nuclear SA requirements and capabilities, and the increasing risk of conventional conflict between nuclear-armed adversaries, this may no longer be the case. The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the University of California, Berkeley’s Nuclear Policy Working Group undertook a two-year study to examine the implications of emerging situational awareness technologies for managing crises between nuclear-armed adversaries.
Envisioning Our Environmental Future
With the Stockholm+50 Conference, held on 2-3 June 2022, the global movement to protect the environment has reached a 50 year milestone. The first UN Conference on the Human Environment, also held in Stockholm, from 5-16 June 1972, proved to be the watershed in addressing this problem, and as the world assembles once more in the Swedish capital it is time to think aloud and look ahead. In his address in 1972, the then Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme said: “The decisive question is in which direction we will develop ... there is no individual future, neither for people nor for nations.” The only other head of government to attend in 1972, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, highlighted...
The Naturalist
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On the Horizon
The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program ran by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI)—to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2019 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a variety of topics such as the future of arms-control treaties, the role of artificial intelligence and cyber resilience in nuclear security, and the role of regional dynamics in nuclear security.
The AI Wave in Defence Innovation
An international and interdisciplinary perspective on the adoption and governance of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in defence and military innovation by major and middle powers. Advancements in AI and ML pose pressing questions related to evolving conceptions of military power, compliance with international humanitarian law, peace promotion, strategic stability, arms control, future operational environments, and technology races. To navigate the breadth of this AI and international security agenda, the contributors to this book include experts on AI, technology governance, and defence innovation to assess military AI strategic perspectives from major and middle AI po...
Integrated Arms Control in an Era of Strategic Competition
Can contemporary arms control keep pace with the rapid rate of change in both geopolitics and technology? While the challenges to future arms control point to a rocky road ahead, measures that build confidence, reduce miscalculation, enhance transparency, restrain costly and dangerous military competition, and offer useful mechanisms and venues for addressing sources of conflict will be of increasing value. For arms control tools to succeed, however, they must be adapted to the current security environment, account for rapidly evolving technological and informational factors, and consider alternative structures, modalities, and participation models. Indeed, now is the time for a recoupling o...
Grand Strategy in 10 Words
This book introduces ten key terms for analysing grand strategy and shows how the world’s great powers – the United States, China, Russia and the European Union (EU) – shape their strategic decisions today and shows how the choices made will determine the course of world politics in the first half of the 21st century.
