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Hidden Markov Models
Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.
Advances in Markov-Switching Models
This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubble...
Numerical Solution of Markov Chains
Papers presented at a workshop held January 1990 (location unspecified) cover just about all aspects of solving Markov models numerically. There are papers on matrix generation techniques and generalized stochastic Petri nets; the computation of stationary distributions, including aggregation/disaggregation.
Copula-Based Markov Models for Time Series
This book provides statistical methodologies for time series data, focusing on copula-based Markov chain models for serially correlated time series. It also includes data examples from economics, engineering, finance, sport and other disciplines to illustrate the methods presented. An accessible textbook for students in the fields of economics, management, mathematics, statistics, and related fields wanting to gain insights into the statistical analysis of time series data using copulas, the book also features stand-alone chapters to appeal to researchers. As the subtitle suggests, the book highlights parametric models based on normal distribution, t-distribution, normal mixture distribution, Poisson distribution, and others. Presenting likelihood-based methods as the main statistical tools for fitting the models, the book details the development of computing techniques to find the maximum likelihood estimator. It also addresses statistical process control, as well as Bayesian and regression methods. Lastly, to help readers analyze their data, it provides computer codes (R codes) for most of the statistical methods.
Dealing with Endogeneity in Regression Models with Dynamic Coefficients
The purpose of this monograph is to present a unified econometric framework for dealing with the issues of endogeneity in Markov-switching models and time-varying parameter models, as developed by Kim (2004, 2006, 2009), Kim and Nelson (2006), Kim et al. (2008), and Kim and Kim (2009). While Cogley and Sargent (2002), Primiceri (2005), Sims and Zha (2006), and Sims et al. (2008) consider estimation of simultaneous equations models with stochastic coefficients as a system, we deal with the LIML (limited information maximum likelihood) estimation of a single equation of interest out of a simultaneous equations model. Our main focus is on the two-step estimation procedures based on the control function approach, and we show how the problem of generated regressors can be addressed in second-step regressions.
Markov Processes, Semigroups and Generators
Markov processes represent a universal model for a large variety of real life random evolutions. The wide flow of new ideas, tools, methods and applications constantly pours into the ever-growing stream of research on Markov processes that rapidly spreads over new fields of natural and social sciences, creating new streamlined logical paths to its turbulent boundary. Even if a given process is not Markov, it can be often inserted into a larger Markov one (Markovianization procedure) by including the key historic parameters into the state space. This monograph gives a concise, but systematic and self-contained, exposition of the essentials of Markov processes, together with recent achievement...
Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models
The past decade has seen powerful new computational tools for modeling which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book is the first to offer a systematic presentation of the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling. The book is designed to show finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, their potential uses, and how they are estimated. Presenting its concepts informally without sacrificing mathematical correctness, it will serve a wide readership including statisticians as well as biologists, economists, engineers, financial and market researchers.
Markov Models for Pattern Recognition
This thoroughly revised and expanded new edition now includes a more detailed treatment of the EM algorithm, a description of an efficient approximate Viterbi-training procedure, a theoretical derivation of the perplexity measure and coverage of multi-pass decoding based on n-best search. Supporting the discussion of the theoretical foundations of Markov modeling, special emphasis is also placed on practical algorithmic solutions. Features: introduces the formal framework for Markov models; covers the robust handling of probability quantities; presents methods for the configuration of hidden Markov models for specific application areas; describes important methods for efficient processing of Markov models, and the adaptation of the models to different tasks; examines algorithms for searching within the complex solution spaces that result from the joint application of Markov chain and hidden Markov models; reviews key applications of Markov models.
The Application of Hidden Markov Models in Speech Recognition
The Application of Hidden Markov Models in Speech Recognition presents the core architecture of a HMM-based LVCSR system and proceeds to describe the various refinements which are needed to achieve state-of-the-art performance.
Harbor Nocturne
A “darkly comic, gritty look at life on the streets” from the former LAPD detective and multiple New York Times bestseller (Publishers Weekly). In the southernmost Los Angeles district of San Pedro, one of the world’s busiest harbors, an unlikely pair of lovers are unwittingly caught between the two warring sides of the law. When Dinko Babich, a young longshoreman, delivers Lita Medina, a young Mexican dancer, from the harbor to a Hollywood nightclub, theirs lives are forever changed, as their love develops among the myriad cops and criminals who occupy the harbor. Suspense and tragedy are intertwined in the everyday life of the cops and residents of San Pedro Harbor, with the unflinch...
