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The Low Interest Rate Policy of the European Central Bank. Are European Savers being expropriated?
Central banks around the world have lowered their key interest rates to historical lows and implemented large asset purchase programs in the past few years. Within the scientific and, most recently, also increasingly in the political debate, the nominal interest rate is mainly the subject of discussion. The question is often raised whether saving and retirement provision are still worthwhile for private households, especially in Germany. In this context it is often ignored or not considered that the purchasing power of the nominal interest rates fluctuates considerably with the inflation rate. Inflation-adjusted real interest rates are therefore decisive for the actual income from financial assets and crucial for the savings and investment behavior. This study, therefore, shall play ist part to investigate scientifically the influence and correlation of low and negative key interest rates on yield levels of selected asset classes within the sphere of influence of the European Central Bank. In this context, the mainly populist question is also answered whether savers are expropriated slowly.
Currencies in Turbulence: Exploring the Impact of Natural Disasters on Exchange Rates
This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on exchange rate movements in different country groups with different exchange rate regimes. Using a panel local projection model with a high-frequency monthly dataset of 177 countries during 1970M1-2019M12, we find that exchange rate movements are more sensitive to natural disasters in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs) than in advanced economies (AEs). Furthermore, exchange rate reactions to natural shocks depend on exchange rate regimes adopted by EMDEs. On average, both nominal and real exchange rates could depreciate up to 6 percents two years after the disasters in non-pegged regimes. Our findings suggest that EMDEs with flexible exchange rate regimes would observe a faster recovery through nominal and real depreciations, although they should be mindful about policy implications that may arise from large exchange rate fluctuations caused by natural disaster shocks.
Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Adoption of fiscal rules and fiscal councils continued to increase globally over the last decades based on two new global datasets. During the pandemic, fiscal frameworks were put to test. The widespread use of escape clauses was one of the novelties in this crisis, which helped provide policy room to respond to the health crisis. But the unprecedented fiscal actions have led to large and widespread deviations from deficit and debt limits. The evidence shows that fiscal rules, in general, have been flexible during crises but have not prevented a large and persistent buildup of debt over time. Experience shows that deviations from debt limits are very difficult to reverse. The paper also presents evidence on the benefits of a good track record in abiding by the rules. All these highlight the difficult policy choices ahead and need to further improve rules-based fiscal frameworks.
The European Sovereign Debt Crisis
The European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Breaking the Vicious Circle between Sovereigns and Banks explains why the euro area’s progress towards reining in the risks arising from the well-documented bi-directional financial contagion transmission mechanism that links sovereigns to commercial banks has been more prominent compared to the channel of contagion moving from banks to sovereigns. Providing an analysis of the legal and regulatory measures that Europe and the euro area have taken to mitigate the exposure of sovereigns to financial crises generated by commercial banks, this book draws attention to areas where improvements to the arsenal of tools hitherto introduced are either desirable or necessary. Chapters further explain – with recourse to economic and legal arguments – why the channel of contagion moving from sovereigns to commercial banks has proven harder to close, and explores ways in which progress could be made in the direction of closing it so as to avert the risk of future banking sector crises. This work provides essential reading for students, researchers and practitioners with an interest in sovereign debt crises and the euro-area banking system.
EDIS, NPLs, Sovereign Debt and Safe Assets
Why does the third leg of the European Banking Union, EDIS, remain mired in controversy? This book presents the views of senior representatives of the public and private sectors and academia on why EDIS is either necessary, counter-productive or even dangerous. No viewpoint has been excluded and the full range of issues involved is covered, including the impact on financial stability and on consolidation of the financial sector in Europe, progress on reducing NPLs, the feasibility of developing "safe bonds" and other, more practical solutions to the "doom loop" and the actual design of EDIS.
Naturgeschichte
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Naturgeschichte
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Austerität als gesellschaftliches Projekt
Das Buch spürt die komplexen Ursachen und Wirkungen von Austerität nach. Denn kaum ein Begriff löst derzeit solch heftige und unterschiedliche gesellschaftliche Reaktionen aus wie Austerität. Aufgrund der weitreichenden Wirkungen von Austerität wird auch von manchen Beobachtern bereits von einem „age of austerity“ gesprochen. Schwerpunkte des Bandes bilden u.a. die diskursive Konstruktion und die sozio-ökonomischen und politischen Folgen von Austerität.
