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Adequacy of Pension Systems in Europe: An analysis based on comprehensive replacement rates
The aim of this paper is to develop indicators to highlight the ability of different national pension systems to enable individuals to maintain their living standards at retirement. Authors Margherita Borella and Elsa Fornero of the University of Turin and CeRP, perform the analysis using data and projections on different European countries and propose the use of a 'COmprehensive Replacement' (CORE) rate. Their aim is to compute, for a set of countries representative of the different European welfare and pension systems, both an actual (data-based) version of CORE, based on ECHP data, and to project its evolution into the future. The paper is organised as follows. Section 1 provides a theoretical framework as well as a review of the literature on the topic. Section 2 contains the computation of replacement rates based on ECHP data. In Section 3 CeRPSAM projections are used to compute COREs over time. Section 4 concludes.
Longer-term Consequences of the Great Recession on the Lives of Europeans
The book uses new survey data on the lives of Europeans to investigate the likely long term impact of the great recession on individual earnings, standards of living, and health.
A Semi-Aggregate Model for Social Expenditure Projections
This report describes the semi-aggregate model (SAM) developed to deliver aggregate projections of social protection expenditures as well as semi-aggregate projections of income sources by age class and gender for a number of European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and United Kingdom) over the horizon 2005-2050. The partial equilibrium stance adopted allows both a greater flexibility in the choice of countries and in the building of scenarios, while at the same time offering an easier understanding of the model's inner mechanisms with respect to general equilibrium modelling. Results for aggregate projections are presented, including various sensitivity scenarios devoted at analysing the role of theoretical replacement rates and employment rates--such as the one necessary to fulfil the Lisbon targets--on public pensions expenditures.
Handbook of Macroeconomics
Annotation Part 6: Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy. 19. Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle (J.Y. Campbell). 20. Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system (R.J. Shiller). 21. The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework (B. Bernanke, M. Gertler and S. Gilchrist). Part 7: Monetary and Fiscal Policy. 22. Political economics and macroeconomic policy (T. Persson, G. Tabellini). 23. Issues in the design of monetary policy rules (B.T. McCallum). 24. Inflation stabilization and BOP crises in developing countries (G.A. Calvo, C.A. Vegh). 25. Government debt (D.W. Elmendorf, N.G. Mankiw). 26. Optimal fiscal and monetary policy (V.V. Chari, P.J. Kehoe).
Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment
We examine the relative predictive power of the sticky price monetary model, uncovered interest parity, and a transformation of net exports and net foreign assets. In addition to bringing Gourinchas and Rey's new approach and more recent data to bear, we implement the Clark and West (forthcoming) procedure for testing the significance of out-of-sample forecasts. The interest rate parity relation holds better at long horizons and the net exports variable does well in predicting exchange rates at short horizons in-sample. In out-of-sample forecasts, we find evidence that our proxy for Gourinchas and Rey's measure of external imbalances outperforms a random walk at short horizons as do some of other models, although no single model uniformly outperforms the random walk forecast.
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 presents research-central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak examine unemployment dynamics during economic recoveries. They present new empirical findings and explore models in which the labor market gradually draws down the stock of unemployed workers in the aftermath of a downturn. Titan Alon, Sena Coskun, Matthias Doepke, David Koll, and Michèle Tertilt analyze the relative decline in employment of women during the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated global recession. They show that increased childcare needs, which fell more heavily on women, and differences in occupations both contributed. In the case of the US, h...
Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion
While progress has been made in increasing female labor force participation (FLFP) in the last 20 years, large gaps remain. The latest Fund research shows that improving gender diversity can result in larger economic gains than previously thought. Indeed, gender diversity brings benefits all its own. Women bring new skills to the workplace. This may reflect social norms and their impact on upbringing and social interactions, or underlying differences in risk preference and response to incentives for example. As such, there is an economic benefit from diversity, that is from bringing women into the labor force, over and above the benefit resulting from more (male) workers. The study finds tha...
