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The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets
Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.
The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis
Using a sample of 34 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 2009Q3-2015Q4, the paper employs a panel framework to study the determinants of capital flows, both net and gross, across a wide range of instruments. The baseline regressions are then extended to focus on high and low episodes – quarters with flows one standard deviation above/below mean. Overall, the results suggest that the capital flow slowdown witnessed in recent years is due to a combination of lower growth prospects of recipient countries and worse global risk sentiment. However, the determinants of flows can be considerably different across instruments and across the type of flows considered, net or gross. The sensitivity of certain types of flows, towards push and pull factors, increases during periods of high and low capital flows. Moreover, some variables may not necessarily be significant during normal times, but can be important drivers during such episodes, and vice versa. Indicators like the gap between the U.S. long- and short-term maturity bond yields – not significant during normal times – can be an important driver during high episodes.
IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Sveriges Riksbank and the History of Central Banking
Written in celebration of its 350th anniversary in 2018, this book details the history of the central bank of Sweden, Sveriges Riksbank, as presented by Klas Fregert. It relates the bank's history to the development of other major central banks around the world. Chapters are written by some of the more prominent scholars in the field of monetary economics and economic history. These chapters include an analysis of the Bank of England written by Charles Goodhart; the evolution of banking in America, written by Barry Eichengreen; a first account of the People's Bank of China, written by Franklin Allen, Xian Gu, and Jun Qian; as well as a chapter about the brief but important history of the European Central Bank, written by Otmar Issing.
Capital Flows - Review of Experience with the Institutional View
Capital flows are an important aspect of the international monetary system. They provide significant benefits, both direct and indirect. At the same time, they also carry risks, and a key challenge for countries is how to harness the benefits while managing the risks. The institutional view on the liberalization and management of capital flows provides the Fund with a basis for consistent advice on policies related to capital flows. This paper reviews countries’ experiences with handling capital flows in the period since the adoption of the IMF’s institutional view in 2012. Based on the experience, it identifies a few areas in which the view would benefit from further clarification or elaboration.
Global Political Economy
The most balanced blend of empirical material and analysis from leading scholars of Global Political Economy. Written by leading international specialists, Global Political Economy is a comprehensive yet accessible introduction to the field. Skilfully interweaving history, theory, and topical issues and debates, the authors offer an authoritative and stimulating guide; which not only informs but also encourages readers to critically examine their own perspectives on the subject. New to this edition, Thoroughly updated to incorporate recent developments, such as the Trump administration Brexit, and populism, Enhanced coverage of the political economy of the environment, New material on globalization, inequality, and poverty Book jacket.
Managing Country Risk in an Age of Globalization
This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors’ academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners.
The EU's Neighbouring Economies
Recoge: I. Overview - II. Regional issues (1. Macroeconomic developments and policy challeges - 2. Economic governance and investment climate) - III. Thematic issues (1. Economic factors behind the political unrest in the South Mediterranean - 2. Exchange rate policies and competitiveness in the EU's Eastern neighbours) - IV. Country analysis: Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Russia, Syria, Tunisia, Ukraine.
Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability
March 1998 Differences in interest margins reflect differences in bank characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, existing financial structure and taxation, regulation, and other institutional factors. Using bank data for 80 countries for 1988-95, Demirgüç-Kunt and Huizinga show that differences in interest margins and bank profitability reflect various determinants: * Bank characteristics. * Macroeconomic conditions. * Explicit and implicit bank taxes. * Regulation of deposit insurance. * General financial structure. * Several underlying legal and institutional indicators. Controlling for differences in bank activity, leverage, and the macroeconomic environment, they find (among other thi...
