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Portugal
Portugal: Selected Issues
Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that pr...
Embassy Cruising Guide Florida to Mobile Bay, 9th edition: Waterways of Florida's East Coast, Keys, Okeechobee, and West Coast to Mobile Bay, Alabama
The Embassy Cruising Guide Florida is a must for recreational boaters traveling the waters of the Sunshine State's coasts and islands, with coverage extending all the way to Mobile Bay, Alabama.
Rising Corporate Market Power
Corporate market power has risen in recent decades, and new estimates in this note suggest that the likely wave of small and medium-sized enterprise bankruptcies from the ongoing pandemic will further strengthen market concentration. Whether and how policymakers should address this issue is hotly debated. This note provides new evidence on the policy relevance of rising market power and highlights possible implications for the design of competition policy frameworks and macroeconomic policies.
Digitalization During the COVID-19 Crisis
Digitalization induced by the pandemic was seen both as a possible silver-lining from the crisis that could increase longer-term productivity and a risk for further labor market inequality between digital and non-digital workers. The note shows that the pandemic accelerated digitalization and triggered a partial catch-up by less digitalized entities in advanced economies. Higher digitalization levels shielded substantially productivity and hours worked during the crisis. However, the extent to which the pandemic-induced digitalization led to structural change in the economy is less clear. Less digitalized sectors have rebounded more strongly, albeit after stronger declines, and while workers in digital occupations were more shielded from the crisis, there does not appear to be a structural change in the composition of labor demand. Meanwhile, shifts in labor supply are more likely to be permanent, driven by the increase in working from home.
Epidemics, Gender, and Human Capital in Developing Countries
Epidemics have disrupted lives for centuries with deleterious human capital and economic repercussions. In this paper, we investigate how epidemics episodes have impacted school dropouts in developing countries, considering 623 epidemics episodes across countries from 1970 to 2019. Our estimates show that, on average, epidemics reduce completion rates by about 2.6 and 2.1 percentage points in primary and lower secondary education respectively, with girls more severely affected than boys. Using detailed micro data for Senegal, we also estimate the potential loss of lifelong earnings and find that the potential labor earnings loss from dropping out of primary and secondary school is almost double for girls than for boys.
Gen-AI
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles. There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology. Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Labor Market Tightness in Advanced Economies
Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, a puzzle has emerged in several advanced economies: unfilled job vacancies have increased sharply even though employment has yet to fully recover. This note sheds light on three contributing factors, namely barriers to returning to work, changing worker preferences away from certain types of jobs, and sectoral and occupational job mismatch. The note also assesses the impact of labor market tightness on wage growth, showing that it has been large for low-pay jobs but milder overall. Bringing disadvantaged groups of workers into the labor force, including by controlling the pandemic itself, would ease labor market pressures while amplifying the recovery and making it more inclusive.
The Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Fiscal Consolidations in Low-income Countries
We quantitatively investigate the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of fiscal consolidations in low-income countries (LICs) through value added tax (VAT), personal income tax (PIT), and corporate income tax (CIT). We extend the standard heterogeneous agents incomplete markets model by including multiple sectors and rural-urban distinction to capture salient features of LICs. We find that overall, VAT has the least efficiency costs but is highly regressive, while PIT impacts the economy in the opposite way with CIT staying in between. Cash transfers targeting rural households mitigate the negative distributional impacts of VAT most effectively, while public investment leads to little redistribution.
