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Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation
This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical mode...
Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Social Science for Counterterrorism
Employs an interdisciplinary, social science approach to various counterterrorism questions, problems, and policies.
Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation
An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with Al-Qaeda
Deterring terrorism is best approached as part of a broad effort to influence all elements of a terrorist system, and simple, conceptual models of decisionmaking can help in understanding how to affect others' behavior. The paper lays out a theory of how to use influence to affect elements of a terrorist system, touching on root causes, individual motivation, public support, and likely factors in the decisionmaking of terrorist organizations.
Object Orientation with Parallelism and Persistence
Both object orientation and parallelism are modern programming paradigms which have gained much popularity in the last 10-15 years. Object orientation raises hopes for increased productivity of software generation and maintenance methods. Parallelism can serve to structure a problem but also promises faster program execution. The two areas of computing science in which these paradigms play the most prominent role are programming languages and databases. In programming languages, one can take an academic approach with a primary focus on the generality of the semantics of the language constructs which support the respective paradigm. In databases, one is willing to restrict the power of the co...
Digital Transformation and Global Society
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the First International Conference on Digital Transformation and Global Society, DTGS 2016, held in St. Petersburg, Russia, in June 2016. The 43 revised full papers and 15 revised short papers, presented together with 3 poster papers and an invited paper were carefully reviewed and selected from 157 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on eSociety: New Social Media Studies; eSociety: eGovernment and eParticipation: Perspectives on ICTs in Public Administration and Democracy; eKnowledge: ICTs in Learning and Education Management; eCity: ICTs for Better Urban (Rural) Planning and Living; eHealth: ICTs in Healthcare; eScience: Big Data Complex Calculations.
Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis
Modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A) is a crucial tool for military affairs. MS&A is one of the announced pillars of a strategy for transforming the U.S. military. Yet changes in the enterprise of MS&A have not kept pace with the new demands arising from rapid changes in DOD processes and missions or with the rapid changes in the technology available to meet those demands. To help address those concerns, DOD asked the NRC to identify shortcomings in current practice of MS&A and suggest where and how they should be resolved. This report provides an assessment of the changing mission of DOD and environment in which it must operate, an identification of high-level opportunities for MS&A research to address the expanded mission, approaches for improving the interface between MS&A practitioners and decision makers, a discussion of training and continuing education of MS&A practitioners, and an examination of the need for coordinated military science research to support MS&A.
A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future
This monograph addresses the following two specific questions: What should a robust acquisition investment strategy look like-one designed to perform well against all anticipated threats? How should the Army acquisition community assess the appropriateness of its investment strategy over time? The study proposes adaptation of a RAND tool called Assumption-Based Planning to help Army personnel maintain proper alignment between strategic guidance and the Army acquisition program and budget. It uses this tool to create a model that recommends acquisition investments across a broad range of capabilities. The model works toward the goal of satisfying the complex and evolving requirements specifie...
Advances in Design for Cross-Cultural Activities Part II
This volume explores decision-making styles, including cooperative, collaborative, avoidant, competitive, and dominate that are commonly modified by the culture. Culture is not a stagnant phenomenon, and many variables need to be considered to accurately evaluation cultural differences in decision-making styles. Among many cultural factors, the ind
