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The Anatomy of the VAT
This paper sets out some tools for understanding the performance of the value added tax (VAT). Applying a decomposition of VAT revenues (as a share of GDP) to the universe of VATs over the last twenty years, it emerges that developments have been driven much less by changes in standard rates than by changes in ‘C-efficiency’ (an indicator of the departure of the VAT from a perfectly enforced tax levied at a uniform rate on all consumption). Decomposing C-efficiency into a ‘policy gap’ (in turn divided into effects of rate differentiation and exemption) and a ‘compliance’ gap (reflecting imperfect implementation), results pieced together for EU members suggest that the former are in almost all cases far larger than the latter, with rate differentiation and exemptions playing roles that differ quite widely across countries.
Niger
2024 Selected Issues
South Africa
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the results of applying the value-added tax (VAT) gap estimation methodology of the Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) to South Africa for the period 2007–12. It is found that the compliance gap is estimated to be between 5 percent and 10 percent of potential VAT revenues during the period 2007–12, and peaking in 2008 and 2009. The estimated compliance gap for VAT in South Africa between 2007 and 2012 is hump-shaped. The results also reveal that the level of the VAT policy gap in South Africa is low by international standards, owing to its simple VAT policy structure.
Pandemic and Progressivity
Based on a survey of about 2,500 US resident adults, we show that people who have experienced serious illness or job loss caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, or who personally know someone who has, favor a temporary progressive levy or structural progressive tax reform to a greater extent than others in the sample, controlling for income, demographic characteristics, and other factors. People who reveal preferences for spending items (more on police, military, border protection; less on education, health, environment) that are associated with communitarian (rather than universalist) moral perspectives generally show weaker support for progressive reforms, but more communitarians change their views as a result of personal experience. The results are consistent with previous findings that economic upheavals can mold individuals’ views on policy matters.
Handbook on Tax Administration
"The Handbook on Tax Administration is a valuable reference tool for tax policymakers, tax administrators and tax students, as well as for those interested in trends and developments in the structure and management of large public organizations."--Back cover.
Understanding Artificial Intelligence in Tax and Customs Administration
This technical note provides an overview of current thinking on artificial intelligence (AI) in tax and customs administration. Written primarily for senior officials, the intent of the note is to provide an awareness of AI that can help inform decision making and planning. The note opens with an exploration of historic and ongoing AI developments. It then provides an overview of legal and ethical concerns, AI use cases, guidance on how to promote AI's responsible use, and logic for introducing AI use cases into an operational setting. The note closes by presenting a selection of questions being debated by experts. In its annexes, the note includes (1) an example of an AI policy; (2) references to help develop AI strategy; and (3) methodology to risk assess AI use cases.
Structural Transformation and Tax Efficiency
Structural transformation has resulted in an increasing share of services in aggregate value-added in advanced and developing countries across the world. We analyze the impact of this shift into services on countries’ efficiency in collecting the value-added tax (VAT). The analysis is based on two alternative measures of VAT efficiency: (1) the VAT C-efficiency, using a broad panel of 134 countries over the period 1970-2014; and (2) the VAT gap using a more granular, proprietary dataset that draws on the results of IMF’s Revenue Administraion-Gap Analysis Program covering 24 countries over the period 2004-2016. We find that a higher share of services in aggregate value-added reduces the VAT efficiency, and that this adverse effect is mainly a result of a rise of non-tradable services, which in turn contributes to a narrowing of the VAT base.
Building Fiscal Capacity in Fragile States
The paper draws on recent country experience to describe the approach to designing and implementing fiscal reforms in fragile states (FS) taken in the IMF’s technical assistance (TA). In doing so, it highlights how the TA that the IMF provides to FS differs from that of non-FS, describes the trends in and modalities of TA delivery, and draws on recent experiences to derive lessons for future work.
The Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program
It is generally difficult to measure revenue not collected due to noncompliance, but a growing number of countries now regularly produce and publish estimated revenue losses. Good tax gap analysis enables the detection of changes in taxpayer behavior by consistent estimates over time. This Technical Note sets out the theoretical concepts for personal income tax (PIT) gap estimation, the different measurement approaches available, and their implications for the scope and presentation of statistics. The note also focuses on the practical steps for measuring the PIT gap by establishing a random audit program to collect data, and how to scale findings from the sample to the population.
Quantifying the Revenue Yields from Tax Administration Reforms
Despite the criticality of tax administration (TA) reforms in enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, few studies have attempted to quantify the revenue impact of such reforms. This paper fills this gap by estimating the revenue yields associated with various tax administration capabilities, based on the International Survey on Tax Administration (ISORA), the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool (TADAT), and TA reform episodes datasets (identified by Akitoby et al., 2020). It uses a Hausman-Taylor cross-country panel regression and an event study for specific TA reform episodes. Our results (using the ISORA data) show that an increase in the overall strength of TA from the 40th per...
