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Spillovers from China
Although China’s much-needed transition to a new growth path is proceeding broadly as expected, the transition is still fraught with uncertainty, including regarding the Chinese authorities’ ability to achieve a smooth rebalancing of growth and the extent of the attendant slowdown in activity. Thus, in the short run, the transition process is likely to entail significant spillovers through trade and commodities, and possibly financial channels. This note sheds some light on the size and nature of financial spillovers from China by looking at the impact of developments in China on global financial markets, with a particular emphasis on differentiation across asset classes and markets. The note shows that economic and financial developments in China have a significant impact on global financial markets, but these effects reflect primarily the central role the country plays in goods trade and commodity markets, rather than China’s financial integration in global markets and the direct financial linkages it has with other countries.
Grenada
The staff report for the First Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Arrangement highlights Grenada’s economic performance in many respects. The time needed to address the unregulated bank, as well as fiscal slippages and the slow pace of structural reform, delayed completion of the first PRGF review. The program entails some risks, particularly with respect to bank restructuring costs, expenditure control, implementation capacity, and natural disasters. The government is considering a concessional loan from the Export-Import Bank of China to finance the construction of a port and marina.
Revisiting Tourism Flows to the Caribbean
The Caribbean share of the global tourism market has been declining. This study examines what is driving tourism flows. It estimates the determinants of tourism and explores variations based on sample differences, and also constructs a static nominal price comparison index. The paper finds that: (i) tourism arrivals and expenditure are sensitive to both price and income factors in source markets; (ii) price and income elasticities of tourism have declined since 2008; (iii) price elasticity is statistically insignificant for “high-end” destinations; and (iv) the nominal cost of an average one week beach holiday in the Caribbean is higher than in other beach destinations around the world. These results point to the need for structural reforms to raise product quality, cost reduction or containment in “low-end” destinations, including possibly via exchange rates, and an adjustment in aggregate consumption to adapt to the implications of a lower contribution to GDP from tourism.
The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries
This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.
Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean
This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic well-being. The analysis highlights the need for Caribbean economies to make a concerted effort to break the feedback loops between weak macroeconomic fundamentals, notably pertaining to fiscal positions and financial sector strains, and structural impediments, such as high electricity costs, limited financial deepening, violent crime, and brain drain, which have depressed private investment and growth. A recurring theme in the book is the need for greater regional coordination in fin...
Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises
Low-income countries were hit especially hard by sharp increases in world food and fuel prices in 2007-08 and the global financial crisis that followed. In response, the International Monetary Fund scaled up its financial assistance to low-income countries and revamped its concessional lending facilities to make them more flexible in meeting the diverse needs of these countries. Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises assesses empirically the outcome of the IMF response, and provides insight into how IMF-supported programs in low-income countries have been adapted to the changing economic circumstances in these countries. The authors report that these programs have provided expanded policy space in the face of the global price shocks and financial crisis.
Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups
This paper takes a fresh look at the determinants of reserves holding with the aim of highlighting similarities and differences in the motives for holding reserves among emerging markets (EMs), advanced economies (AEs), and low-income countries (LICs). We apply two panel estimation techniques: fixed effects (FE) and common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG). FE regression results suggest that precautionary savings motives, both current account- and capital account-related, are generally the most important determinants of reserves holding across country groups and that their importance has increased for AEs and LICs since the global financial crisis while receding for EMs. Mercanti...
Seychelles
Seychelles's strong stabilization efforts has helped the economy to overcome debt crisis and global recession under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). But the authorities need to address monetary policy trade-offs, and financial sector challenges exist. Executive Directors welcomed Seychelles's structural reform agenda, which aims at enhancing public financial and central bank management, strengthening competition and risk management, and reducing the role of the state in the financial system. Directors appreciated Seychelles's strong performance compliance with performance criteria under the economic program, and extended further financing.
Globalization and the New Normal
This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.
Central Bank Digital Currency and Other Digital Payments in Sub-Saharan Africa
This Fintech Note reports key findings from the Sub-Saharan Africa Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and Digital Payments Survey, shedding light on the motivations, benefits, and challenges of CBDC adoption, as well as the developments of digital private money and crypto assets in sub-Saharan Africa. It emphasizes the pivotal role of collaboration and shared knowledge in navigating the intricate landscape of digital currencies and assets in sub-Saharan Africa. As this evolving digital frontier is explored, the experiences and aspirations of the region’s central banks, as expressed in the survey, will help harness the potential for digital currencies, assets, and payments, and foster cooperation among countries in sub-Saharan Africa. A forthcoming IMF Departmental Paper will focus on key issues for countries in sub-Saharan Africa pertaining to CBDCs, private digital payments, and crypto assets. It will provide a deeper discussion of the benefits, costs, and risks of these digital payment systems and present policy options to enhance financial digital development and inclusion, while safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability.
