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Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?
The paper shows that foreign holdings of local currency government bonds in emerging market countries (EMs) have reduced bond yields but have somewhat increased yield volatility in the post-Lehman period. Econometric analyses conducted from a sample of 12 EMs demonstrate that these results are robust and causal. We use an identification strategy exploiting the geography-based measure of EMs financial remoteness vis-à-vis major offshore financial centers as an instrumental variable for the foreign holdings variable.The results also show that, in countries with weak fiscal and external positions, foreign holdings are greatly associated with increased yield volatility. A case study using Poland data elaborates on the cross country findings.
Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market
Local currency government bonds (OFZ bonds) are an important fixed-income instrument in Russia’s financial markets. In this paper, based on granular data, we explore the development of the OFZ bond market with a focus on foreign investors. As this fixed-income market has experienced a liberalization of the domestic trading and settlement infrastructure, and weathered several episodes of market stresses since the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the role of foreign investors can be observed along with these events. What we have found is that foreign investors had influenced the market before they became an important player and since then they have contributed to the development of the market while not necessarily destabilizing it in episodes of shocks.
Local Government Financing Platforms in China
China’s rapid credit expansion in 2009–10 brought local government financing platforms (LGFPs) into the spotlight. This paper discusses their function, reasons behind their recent expansion, and risks they are posing to the financial sector, local governments, and sovereign balance sheet. This paper argues that LGFPs were a fortune for China in the past, but would turn out to be a misfortune if the causes of the rapid expansion of LGFPs are not addressed promptly. In this context, the paper proposes ways to avoid misfortune by: acknowledging and addressing the revenue and expenditure mismatches at the local government level; establishing a comprehensive framework to regulate and supervise local government budgets; ensuring the sustainability of the financial resources obtained from the sale of land use rights; and developing local government bond markets and promoting financial reforms.
Investment Objectives of Sovereign Wealth Funds
While SWF investment objectives to some extent reflect inherent characteristics, notable differences in strategic asset allocation (SAA) exist even amongst SWFs of similar types. Even so, this paper shows that the global crisis may have changed SWF’s asset allocations in ways that may not be ideal or justified in all cases and that a review of investment objectives may be warranted. It also argues for regular macro-risk assessments for the sovereign, the continued importance of SWFs as a stabilizer in international capital markets, as well as the active role they could play in international regulatory reform.
Does Balance Sheet Strength Drive the Investment Cycle? Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis Cyprus
Fixed investment was the most important contributing factor to the boom-bust cycle in Cyprus over the last decade. Investment boomed during a credit boom in mid-2000s, during which the corporate sector borrowed heavily. Investment collapsed after 2008 when the credit boom ended. Investment and corporate balance sheets further deteriorated during the Cypriot banking crisis over 2012–2014. Using firm-level investment and balance sheet data, we find that corporate indebtedness is negatively associated with investment both before and after the banking crisis, although the effect is weaker after the Cypriot banking crisis, possibly due to the reduced role of credit in driving post-crisis investment and growth. Our results suggest the need to repair corporate balance sheets to support sustainable invesetment.
Idiosyncratic and Systemic Risk in the European Corporate Sector
Systemic risk remains a major concern to policymakers since widespread defaults in the corporate and financial sectors could pose substantial costs to society. Forward-looking measures and/or indicators of systemic default risk are thus needed to identify potential buildups of vulnerability in advance. In this paper, we explain how to construct idiosyncratic and systemic default risk indicators using the information embedded in single-tranche standardized collateralized debt obligations (STCDOs) referencing credit derivatives indices. As an illustration, both risk indicators are constructed for the European corporate sector using midprice quotes for STCDOs referencing the iTraxx Europe index.
Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?
China’s rapid credit expansion in 2009–10 brought local government financing platforms (LGFPs) into the spotlight. This paper discusses their function, reasons behind their recent expansion, and risks they are posing to the financial sector, local governments, and sovereign balance sheet. This paper argues that LGFPs were a fortune for China in the past, but would turn out to be a misfortune if the causes of the rapid expansion of LGFPs are not addressed promptly. In this context, the paper proposes ways to avoid misfortune by: acknowledging and addressing the revenue and expenditure mismatches at the local government level; establishing a comprehensive framework to regulate and supervise local government budgets; ensuring the sustainability of the financial resources obtained from the sale of land use rights; and developing local government bond markets and promoting financial reforms.
What Drives the POLONIA Spread in Poland?
Since the start of the 2008 - 09 financial crisis, the Polish Overnight Index Average (POLONIA) has persistently been below the policy rate, suggesting a limited influence of the NBP’s open market operations on the short-term interbank rate. In this regard, this paper analyzes the behavior of the POLONIA spread and explore several potential factors that could influence the spread. An empirical analysis confirms that the negative POLONIA spread is related to a few factors, which include the existence of the structural liquidity in the banking system; bank’s unwillingness to lock up liquidity in the NBP bills; the frontloading of banks’ fulfillment of the reserve requirements; and external market sentiment. The analysis also shows the effectiveness of the NBP’s responses to the financial crisis and structural liquidity surplus.
Setting up a Sovereign Wealth Fund: Some Policy and Operational Considerations
This paper offers a policy and operational "roadmap" to policymakers considering setting up an SWF. It should also be of interest to policymakers in countries where SWFs are already in place, to review their existing policies and operations. Finally, it offers an opportunity to identify areas where research in macroeconomics and finance should give further answers as to the adequacy of existing practice related to the setting up and management of SWFs, an area where practical considerations often lead theoretical research. For instance, policymakers should optimally consider both their sovereign assets and liabilities together with their macroeconomic objectives, when setting up an SWF.
Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) experienced a credit boom-bust cycle in the last decade. This paper analyzes the roles of demand and supply factors in explaining this credit cycle. Our analysis first focuses on a large sample of bank-level data on credit growth for the entire CESEE region. We complement this analysis by five case studies (Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania). Our results of the panel data analysis indicate that supply factors, on average and relative to demand factors, gained in importance in explaining credit growth in the post-crisis period. In the case studies, we find a similar result for Lithuania and Montenegro, but the other three case studies point to the fact that country experiences were heterogeneous.
