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The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
After decades of rapid growth and improvements in living standards, a series of shocks led to severe economic pressures, and the public investment-led growth model has reached its limits. Domestic conflict, the pandemic, droughts, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as significant exchange rate overvaluation and insufficient macroeconomic policy adjustment, compounded building vulnerabilities resulting in high inflation, falling exports, foreign exchange shortages, erosion of international reserves, and unsustainable external debt. Reflecting their ambition to transform the economic model towards private sector-led development, and recognizing the urgent need for reform, the authorities developed the Home-Grown Economic Reform Agenda. This ambitious plan aims at tackling the drivers of economic imbalances including through moving to a market-determined exchange rate, modernizing the monetary policy framework, tackling fiscal revenues, and reforming state-owned enterprises.
Global Food Crisis Update
The global food crisis remains a major challenge. Food insecurity fueled by widely experienced increases in the cost of living has become a growing concern especially in low-income countries, even if price pressures on global food markets have softened somewhat since the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine in February 2022. Targeted assistance to the most vulnerable households combined with policy measures to support trade and agriculture systems, including to better cope with climate shocks, can help countries withstand the fallout of the ongoing food crisis while building longer-term resilience. The IMF, working in close cooperation with other international organizations, has continued to contribute to international efforts to alleviate food insecurity by providing policy advice, capacity development, and financial support through Upper Credit Tranche Arrangements and the new Food Shock Window. New commitments to countries particularly affected by the global food crisis total $13.2 billion since February 2022, of which $3.7 billion has been disbursed as of March 2023.
Tackling the Global Food Crisis
Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated food insecurity that had already been on the rise for half a decade. Low-income countries are affected the most. This note suggests that the food and fertilizer price shock would add $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 to the import bills of the 48 most affected countries. The budgetary cost of protecting vulnerable households in these countries amounts to $5–7 billion. Strong and timely action on a global scale is needed to support vulnerable households through international humanitarian assistance and domestic fiscal measures; to maintain open trade; to enhance food production and distribution; and to invest in climate-resilient agriculture. The IMF has ...
Namibia
The COVID-19 pandemic has sharply deteriorated Namibia’s short-term macroeconomic outlook, giving rise to urgent balance of payments (BOP) and fiscal financing needs. After an initial outbreak peaked in August, a second wave hit in late 2020. Containment measures have negatively impacted domestic consumption and economic activity, weighing on tax revenues collection. Furthermore, worsening global conditions have hindered mining production and exports, tourism receipts, and investment inflows. The economy is expected to have sharply contracted by 7.2 percent in 2020, and the recovery is set to remain subdued in 2021.
Liberia
Liberia’s real per-capita income is still about a third of the level prior internal conflicts. Notwithstanding the strong economic rebound recorded after the pandemic, a large infrastructure gap has remained, and the expected domestic revenue mobilization has not materialized. These two factors have posed significant economic and fiscal challenges in the short and medium term. The implementation of the 2019-23 Fund-supported program was mixed, with a strong start followed by a disappointing performance ahead of the recent presidential elections. To address current and future challenges, fiscal discipline needs to be restored, governance vulnerabilities addressed, and the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) governance, independence, and supervisory role strengthened. Therefore, scope for deviation from the established policy and reform agenda is very limited given the implications to debt sustainability and capacity to repay the Fund.
Ecuador
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite a difficult political environment, economic growth in Ecuador is estimated to have exceeded 3 percent in 2005, with the non-oil sector expanding by 31⁄2 percent. The strong growth in the oil sector that followed the completion of the new oil pipeline in 2003 has tapered off, but high oil prices have helped bolster confidence and underpin domestic demand. The external current account deficit is estimated to have remained unchanged at about 1 percent of GDP.
Cyprus: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus
Cyprus is highly exposed to the fallout from the war in Ukraine through trade with Russia. This new challenge comes against the background of the lingering effects of the pandemic and financial vulnerabilities dating from the 2012–13 crisis. Growth is projected to slow from 51⁄2 percent in 2021 to around 2 percent this year. Recovery will regain momentum in 2023, and is projected to continue in the medium term, supported by investments and structural reforms in the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
The Determinants of Currency Crises
This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, a rigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.
Medical Computer Vision
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-workshop proceedings of the International Workshop on Medical Computer Vision, MCV 2010, held in Beijing, China, in September 2010 as a satellite event of the 13th International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention, MICCAI 2010. The 10 revised full papers and 11 revised poster papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 38 initial submissions. The papers explore the use of modern image recognition technology in tasks such as semantic anatomy parsing, automatic segmentation and quantification, anomaly detection and categorization, data harvesting, semantic navigation and visualization, data organization and clustering, and general-purpose automatic understanding of medical images.
