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How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices?
We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.
Assessing The Impact Of Fiscal Shocks On Output In MENAP Countries
This note is a reference guide to the econometric work on fiscal multipliers for MENAP countries. Spending and tax multipliers are estimated from conventional VAR models and identified using a sign-restrictions approach. Estimates show that fiscal multipliers tend to be small, except for those associated with government investment spending, which generally exceed unity. For the average MENAP country, fiscal multipliers for current spending, government consumption and government investment spending are 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1,respectively, while the tax revenues multiplier is estimated at around –0.4. There is also significant variation in the size of these multipliers across countries, consistent with differences in economic fundamentals, such as openness to trade and the flexibility of the exchange rate. The estimated multipliers are generally consistent with theoretical priors, and are in line with the evidence from the literature for other economies and categories of spending and taxes.
Public-Private Wage Differentials and Interactions Across Countries and Time
Public-Private Wage Differentials and Interactions Across Countries and Time
The Quest for the Holy Grail
Achieving fiscal consolidation without undermining growth and poverty-reduction efforts is a key policy challenge in many countries. Using India as an illustration, this paper shows how a mix of well-designed taxation and spending policies can help address these challenges. On the tax side, the analysis focuses on increasing consumption taxes on goods with negative consumption externalities. On the spending side, some of the additional revenues from the tax reform are allocated to scaling up key social transfer programs. Substantial additional gains are possible if the increased social transfers can be accompanied by improved targeting.
Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through
This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on average, a one cent increase in crude oil prices per liter translates into a 1.2 cent increase in the retail gasoline price at peak level six months after the shock. However, the estimates vary significantly across country groups, ranging from about 0.5 cent in MENA countries to two cents in advanced economies. The results also show that positive oil price shocks have a larger impact than negative price shocks on the retail gasoline price. Finally, the paper underscores the importance of the new dataset in refining estimates of the fiscal cost of incomplete pass-through.
Land Resources Information Systems in the Near East
Countries of the Near East vary in the type, quantity and format of the inventories of their land resources. Quite often, these data are sporadic, incomplete, out of date or based on diverse systems of land and soil classification and mapping. There is a need for the establishment of a user-friendly database on land and water Resources for each country, to be easily available at the desktop of land use planners and decision makers. Land resources information systems experiences in the countries are presented in this document, as well as recommendations for future collaboration in database development, reporting and exchange of information, expertise and experiences in land and water management in the region and the implementation of regional projects.
Republic of Mozambique
The report contributes to the Mozambican authorities on options for rationalizing wage bill spending.
Assessing The Impact Of Fiscal Shocks On Output In MENAP Countries
This note is a reference guide to the econometric work on fiscal multipliers for MENAP countries. Spending and tax multipliers are estimated from conventional VAR models and identified using a sign-restrictions approach. Estimates show that fiscal multipliers tend to be small, except for those associated with government investment spending, which generally exceed unity. For the average MENAP country, fiscal multipliers for current spending, government consumption and government investment spending are 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1,respectively, while the tax revenues multiplier is estimated at around –0.4. There is also significant variation in the size of these multipliers across countries, consistent with differences in economic fundamentals, such as openness to trade and the flexibility of the exchange rate. The estimated multipliers are generally consistent with theoretical priors, and are in line with the evidence from the literature for other economies and categories of spending and taxes.
The Quest for the Holy Grail
Achieving fiscal consolidation without undermining growth and poverty-reduction efforts is a key policy challenge in many countries. Using India as an illustration, this paper shows how a mix of well-designed taxation and spending policies can help address these challenges. On the tax side, the analysis focuses on increasing consumption taxes on goods with negative consumption externalities. On the spending side, some of the additional revenues from the tax reform are allocated to scaling up key social transfer programs. Substantial additional gains are possible if the increased social transfe
