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IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile Versus Non-Fragile States
This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries from 2009 to 2022, focusing on how macroeconomic targets and their achievement differ between fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS. Key findings include similar program targets for FCS and non-FCS, optimism in all dimensions considered other than inflation, and no significant correlation between targets and outcomes. For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes. This underscores the challenges in setting realistic, country and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries. Finally, we discuss potential caveats, including GDP rebenchmarking, non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets, and repeat programs. We do not study, and make no claims about, causality.
Cameroon
The report presents a reassessment of fiscal transparency practices in the Republic of Cameroon, in comparison with the principles of the IMF Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency. It is the follow-up to a pilot report prepared by the IMF on transparency in fiscal management. The first part describes current fiscal transparency practices in Cameroon. The second component is the IMF staff commentary on fiscal transparency in the Republic of Cameroon. This report also contains an assessment of transparency in natural resource revenue management.
Public Sector Debt Statistics
The global financial crisis of recent years and the associated large fiscal deficits and debt levels that have impacted many countries underscores the importance of reliable and timely government statistics and, more broadly, public sector debt as a critical element in countries fiscal and external sustainability. Public Sector Debt Statistics is the first international guide of its kind, and its primary objectives are to improve the quality and timeliness of key debt statistics and promote a convergence of recording practices to foster international comparability and as a reference for national compilers and users for compiling and disseminating these data. Like other statistical guides pub...
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Assessing Country Risk
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
The Lancet London
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Pakistan
This paper examines Pakistan’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria. Although most reforms were broadly on track, there were setbacks in energy sector reforms, and to a lesser extent in privatization. Progress was made in preparing the full Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and monitoring intermediate social outcomes. All quantitative performance criteria for end-December 2002 were met. The budget for fiscal year 2003/04 will aim at a further reduction of the fiscal deficit while raising social and poverty-related expenditures.
