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Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 25

Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth

Corruption, particularly political or “grand” corruption, distorts the entire decision-making process connected with public investment projects. The degree of distortions is higher with weaker auditing institutions. The evidence presented shows that higher corruption is associated with (i) higher public investment; (ii) lower government revenues; (iii) lower expenditures on operations and maintenance; and (iv) lower quality of public infrastructure. The evidence also shows that corruption increases public investment while reducing its productivity. These are five channels through which corruption lowers growth. An implication is that economists should be more restrained in their praise of high public sector investment, especially in countries with high corruption.

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 59

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community

Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.

Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 44

Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.

Reforming the EU Fiscal Framework
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 49

Reforming the EU Fiscal Framework

The EU’s fiscal framework needs reform. While existing fiscal rules have had some impact in constraining deficits, they did not prevent deficits and debt ratios that have threatened the stability of the monetary union in the past and that continue to create vulnerabilities today. The framework also has a poor track record at managing trade-offs between containing fiscal risks and stabilizing output. Finally, the framework does not provide sufficient tools for EU-wide stabilization. This was most visible during the decade following the euro area sovereign debt crisis, when structurally low real interest rates stretched the policy tools of the European Central Bank (ECB), leading to a persis...

The Return to Fiscal Rules
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 37

The Return to Fiscal Rules

Governments face difficult policy trade-offs with record debt levels, tightening monetary policies, and urgent demands, including food and energy crises, the climate agenda, and population aging. Governments need to communicate fiscal plans to reduce debt sustainability risks and promote consistent macroeconomic policies. Many envisage a return to fiscal rules that had been suspended during the pandemic to strengthen credibility. This situation offers an opportunity to rethink fiscal rules and determine how governments can make fiscal policy more agile, including in responding to crises, without undermining fiscal sustainability. A risk-based medium-term fiscal framework that combines standards, rules, and strengthened institutions would strike a better balance between flexibility and credibility.

How Useful Are Benefit Incidence Analyses of Public Education and Health Spending
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 49

How Useful Are Benefit Incidence Analyses of Public Education and Health Spending

This paper provides a primer on benefit incidence analysis (BIA) for macroeconomists and a new data set on the benefit incidence of education and health spending covering 56 countries over 1960-2000, representing a significant improvement in quality and coverage over existing compilations. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of BIA in two dimensions. First, the paper finds, among other things, that overall education and health spending are poorly targeted; benefits from primary education and primary health care go disproportionately to the middle class, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, HIPCs and transition economies; but targeting has improved in the 1990s. Second, simple measures of association show that countries with a more propoor incidence of education and health spending tend to have better education and health outcomes, good governance, high per capita income, and wider accessibility to information. The paper explores policy implications of these findings.

Military Spending, the Peace Dividend, and Fiscal Adjustment
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 33

Military Spending, the Peace Dividend, and Fiscal Adjustment

The end of the Cold War has ushered in significant changes in worldwide military spending. This paper finds that the easing of (1) international tensions, (2) regional tensions, and (3) the existence of IMF-supported programs are related to lower military spending and a higher share of nonmilitary spending in total government outlays. These factors account for up to 66 percent, 26 percent, and 11 percent of the decline in military spending, respectively. Furthermore, fiscal adjustment has implied a larger cut in military spending of countries with IMF-supported programs.

How Useful Are Benefit Incidence Analyses of Public Education and Health Spending
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 49

How Useful Are Benefit Incidence Analyses of Public Education and Health Spending

This paper provides a primer on benefit incidence analysis (BIA) for macroeconomists and a new data set on the benefit incidence of education and health spending covering 56 countries over 1960-2000, representing a significant improvement in quality and coverage over existing compilations. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of BIA in two dimensions. First, the paper finds, among other things, that overall education and health spending are poorly targeted; benefits from primary education and primary health care go disproportionately to the middle class, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, HIPCs and transition economies; but targeting has improved in the 1990s. Second, simple measures of association show that countries with a more propoor incidence of education and health spending tend to have better education and health outcomes, good governance, high per capita income, and wider accessibility to information. The paper explores policy implications of these findings.

Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 24

Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth

Corruption, particularly political or “grand” corruption, distorts the entire decision-making process connected with public investment projects. The degree of distortions is higher with weaker auditing institutions. The evidence presented shows that higher corruption is associated with (i) higher public investment; (ii) lower government revenues; (iii) lower expenditures on operations and maintenance; and (iv) lower quality of public infrastructure. The evidence also shows that corruption increases public investment while reducing its productivity. These are five channels through which corruption lowers growth. An implication is that economists should be more restrained in their praise of high public sector investment, especially in countries with high corruption.

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 59

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community

Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.