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Monetary Policy in the New Normal
The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy frameworks more resilient to the risk of being constrained by the zero-lower bound going forward, and the institutional challenges to preserve central bank independence with regards to monetary policy, while allowing adequate government oversight over central banks’ new responsibilities. It will draw policy conclusions where consensus has been reached, and highlight the areas where more work is needed to get more granular policy advice.
Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind
Using bilateral data on migration across US metro areas, we find strong evidence that increasing house price and income inequality has reduced long distance migration, the type most linked to jobs. For those migrating uphill, from a less to a more prosperous location, lower mobility is driven by increasing house price inequlity, as the disincentives from higher house prices dominate the incentives from higher earnings. By contrast, increasing income inequality drives the fall in downhill migration as the disincentives from lower earnings dominate the incentives from lower house prices. The model underlines the plight of those trapped in decaying metro areas—those “left behind”.
Leverage? What Leverage? A Deep Dive into the U.S. Flow of Funds in Search of Clues to the Global Crisis
This paper questions the view that leverage should have forewarned us of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, pointing to several gearing indicators that were neither useful portents of the onset of the crisis nor of its ferocity. Instead it shows, first, that the use of ill-suited collateral in the secured funding operations of U.S.-based investment banks was the fatal link between the collapse of structured finance and the global malfunction of funding markets that turbocharged the downdraft; and, second, that this insight (and others) can be decrypted from the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States.
Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model
We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20 percent a year and fiscal multipliers of 0.15-0.4-depending on the permanence of the change in taxes/transfers, and is much superior to one that assumes some consumers are fully Ricardian and others follow simple rules of thumb. The implied high private sector rate of discount has wide implications for policymakers.
A Provincial View of Economic Integration
This paper develops a method of testing levels of economic integration based upon consumption smoothing, and tests it using data on trade balances across Canadian provinces. The results indicate the provinces are highly integrated within Canada, but integration between Canada and the rest of the world is partial. Provincial trade balances respond only about half as much to events in the rest of the world as they do to events within Canada. In short, national borders appear to matter for intertemporal trade.
Resilience and Growth Through Sustained Adjustment
This paper reviews and analyzes how Morocco overcame the economic and financial crisis it confronted at the beginning of the 1980s. It highlights the challenges that still confront the Moroccan economy and the lessons that can be drawn from Morocco's adjustment experience.
Aftershocks of Monetary Unification
Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that the Euro Area needs vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor—that monetary union without banking union will not work.
International Finance and Financial Crises
This book contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood Jr. Contributors to the conference were invited to address many of the topics that Robert Flood has explored including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market voloatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. The results, contained in this volume, include five papers on topics in international finance.
The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990's
For a large part of the past decade, Japan has witnessed a steady deterioration in the health of its banking system. This paper examines what went wrong and why it has taken so long for the system to recover. While the paper traces the roots of the crisis to accelerated deregulation and deepening of capital markets without an appropriate adjustment in the regulatory framework, it identifies weak corporate governance and regulatory forbearance as the two factors behind what might have been an unnecessary prolongation of the distress of the financial system.
