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Monetary Policy in the New Normal
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 49

Monetary Policy in the New Normal

The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy frameworks more resilient to the risk of being constrained by the zero-lower bound going forward, and the institutional challenges to preserve central bank independence with regards to monetary policy, while allowing adequate government oversight over central banks’ new responsibilities. It will draw policy conclusions where consensus has been reached, and highlight the areas where more work is needed to get more granular policy advice.

Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 34

Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind

Using bilateral data on migration across US metro areas, we find strong evidence that increasing house price and income inequality has reduced long distance migration, the type most linked to jobs. For those migrating uphill, from a less to a more prosperous location, lower mobility is driven by increasing house price inequlity, as the disincentives from higher house prices dominate the incentives from higher earnings. By contrast, increasing income inequality drives the fall in downhill migration as the disincentives from lower earnings dominate the incentives from lower house prices. The model underlines the plight of those trapped in decaying metro areas—those “left behind”.

Leverage? What Leverage? A Deep Dive into the U.S. Flow of Funds in Search of Clues to the Global Crisis
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 30

Leverage? What Leverage? A Deep Dive into the U.S. Flow of Funds in Search of Clues to the Global Crisis

This paper questions the view that leverage should have forewarned us of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, pointing to several gearing indicators that were neither useful portents of the onset of the crisis nor of its ferocity. Instead it shows, first, that the use of ill-suited collateral in the secured funding operations of U.S.-based investment banks was the fatal link between the collapse of structured finance and the global malfunction of funding markets that turbocharged the downdraft; and, second, that this insight (and others) can be decrypted from the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States.

Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 34

Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model

We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20 percent a year and fiscal multipliers of 0.15-0.4-depending on the permanence of the change in taxes/transfers, and is much superior to one that assumes some consumers are fully Ricardian and others follow simple rules of thumb. The implied high private sector rate of discount has wide implications for policymakers.

Resilience and Growth Through Sustained Adjustment
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 162

Resilience and Growth Through Sustained Adjustment

This paper reviews and analyzes how Morocco overcame the economic and financial crisis it confronted at the beginning of the 1980s. It highlights the challenges that still confront the Moroccan economy and the lessons that can be drawn from Morocco's adjustment experience.

Foreign Direct Investment in the World Economy
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 36

Foreign Direct Investment in the World Economy

The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in international capital flows is examined. Theories of the determinants of FDI are surveyed, and the economic consequences of FDI for both host (recipient) and home (investor) nations are examined in light of empirical studies. Policy issues surrounding possible negotiation of a “multilateral agreement on investment” are discussed.

Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 58
Aftershocks of Monetary Unification
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 26

Aftershocks of Monetary Unification

Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that the Euro Area needs vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor—that monetary union without banking union will not work.

International Finance and Financial Crises
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 304

International Finance and Financial Crises

This book contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood Jr. Contributors to the conference were invited to address many of the topics that Robert Flood has explored including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market voloatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. The results, contained in this volume, include five papers on topics in international finance.

International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 42

International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving

A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavior is examined, using data for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. Both time-series and cross-section estimates are obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offset on private saving of changes in public saving and (for developing countries) in foreign saving, that demographics and growth are important determinants of private saving rates, and that interest rates and terms of trade have positive, but less robust, effects. Increases in per capita GDP seem to increase saving at low income levels (relative to the United States) but decrease it at higher ones.