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Economic Diversification in the GCC
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, ...
The Nexus Between Public Enterprise Governance, Financial Performance, and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities: An Application to Moldova
Strong governance frameworks for public enterprises have long been an anchor of stability and efficiency underpinning their financial operations and performance. Cross-country experiences with the adoption of robust legal, regulatory and institutional arrangements—in line with international best practices— proved critical in reducing well-known risks and vulnerabilities from such companies, clarifying the role of the state, improving the management of state assets, and ensuring a level playing field for the private sector to prosper. Moldova’s large public enterprise sector of over 900 companies faces elevated risks that amplify fiscal and macroeconomic vulnerabilities and undermine market competition, productivity, and private investment. Moldova stands to greatly benefit from strengthening its public corporate governance regime to put its public enterprises on a stronger footing, address vulnerabilities, and improve market structure.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Strong Growth
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Strong Growth
The Geopolitics of Renewables
Renewables are a game changer for interstate energy relations. Their abundance and intermittency, possibilities for decentral generation and use of rare earth materials, and generally electric nature of transportation make them very different from fossil fuels. What do these geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems imply for infrastructure topology and operations, business models, and energy markets? What are the consequences for the strategic realities and policy considerations of producer, consumer, and transit countries and energy-related patterns of cooperation and conflict between them? Who are the winners and losers? The Geopolitics of Renewables is the firs...
The European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council
This book provides a comprehensive assessment of the various dimensions of the relationship between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council, and highlights how relations are yet to reach their full potential. Despite both parties sharing a number of common interests, including trade, energy, climate change, security and cultural cooperation, the multilateral cooperation framework remains limited, with most engagement taking place bilaterally, between individual European and GCC countries. The book reassesses the potential and prospects for the EU’s engagement with GCC countries based on the recalibration and reconciliation of both parties’ national and regional interests. Taking a thematic approach, each of the three sections of the book examines a key dimension of the relationship, its current status and its path forward.
Cluster-Based Industrial Development:
This book attempts to provide an effective strategy for industrial development based on the KAIZEN management training experiments conducted in Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, Vietnam, and Tanzania. We focus on micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in industrial clusters, because clusters consisting of MSEs are ubiquitous and have high potential to grow.
The Volatility Trap
We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in the safe asset and low investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent shocks leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks. Empirical evidence shows a nonlinear relationship between investment and saving and that investment is a hump-shaped function of the volatility of permanent shocks, as predicted by the model.
An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
