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The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries
This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.
IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries
Focusing on Low-Income Countries, we investigate the behavior of fiscal variables during and after elections. The results indicate that during election years, government consumption significantly increases and leads to higher fiscal deficits. During the two years following elections, the fiscal adjustment takes the form of increased revenue mobilization in trade taxes and cuts to government investment, with no significant cuts in government consumption. Using a new dataset on national fiscal rules and IMF programs, we find that both the presence of fiscal rules and IMF programs help dampen the magnitude of the political budget cycle in LICs. We conclude that elections not only imply a macroeconomic cost when they take place but also trigger a painful fiscal adjustment in which public investment is largely sacrificed.
Energy Subsidies and Public Social Spending
This paper shows that high energy subsidies and low public social spending can emerge as an equilibrium outcome of a political game between the elite and the middle-class when the provision of public goods is subject to bottlenecks, reflecting weak domestic institutions. We test this and other predictions of our model using a large cross-section of emerging markets and low-income countries. The main empirical challenge is that subsidies and social spending could be jointly determined (e.g., at the time of the budget), leading to a simultaneity bias in OLS estimates. To address this concern, we adopt an identification strategy whereby subsidies in a given country are instrumented by the level of subsidies in neighboring countries. Our Instrumental Variable (IV) estimations suggest that public expenditures in education and health were on average lower by 0.6 percentage point of GDP in countries where energy subsidies were 1 percentage point of GDP higher. Moreover, we find that the crowding-out was stronger in the presence of weak domestic institutions, narrow fiscal space, and among the net oil importers.
Economics and Ageing
This upper level textbook provides a coherent introduction to the economic implications of individual and population ageing. Placing economic considerations into a wider social sciences context, this is ideal reading not only for advanced undergraduate and masters students in health economics and economics of ageing, but policy makers, professionals and practitioners in gerontology, sociology, health-related sciences, and social care. This volume introduces topics in labour economics, including the economic implications of ageing workforces. It covers pension economics and pension systems with their macroeconomic and distributive effects, and the question of risk. Finally, it describes macroeconomic consequences of ageing populations on aggregate saving, inflation, international trade, and financial markets.
Fiscal Politics
Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
Business Threats and Opportunities in the Western Balkans
This book provides a comprehensive outlook of expected long-term economic changes in the Western Balkans, inspiration for involved decision-makers, and ways to leverage the opportunities of the COVID-19 pandemic. It considers how the organizational aspects of enterprises, changes in consumer behavior, the rise of informational technologies, and the expansion of the digital market can create economic growth based on lower carbon consumption and sustainable growth based on green and clean solutions. The length and depth of the current economic crisis will depend on a combination of effective policies, incentives and management systems that can balance between the protection of public health and economic well-being.
Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers
Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key policy implications: First, as a reflection of strengthening trade linkages, German fiscal spillovers to the CE4 and more broadly to the rest of the euro area, have increased over time, but are still relatively small. This is explained by the supply chain nature of trade integration: final demand in Germany is not necessarily the main determinant of CE4 exports to Germany. Second, increased trade openness in both Germany and the CE4 implies a greater exposure of the GCESC to global shocks. However, owing to its strong fundamentals—including sound balance sheets and its safe haven status— Germany plays the role of a regional anchor of stability by better absorbing shocks from other trading partners instead of amplifying their transmission across the GCESC.
Asia’s Perspectives on Climate Change
Asia and the Pacific’s green transition will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Over the past decades, the region has become the engine of global economic growth. With relatively heavy reliance on coal and high energy intensity, the region has recently become the largest contributor to growth in global GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total emissions in 2020. Achieving net zero by 2050 requires an energy transition at an unprecedented scale and speed, even as the region must ensure energy security and affordability. The region must also address its vulnerability to climate change as it comprises many countries highly exposed to climate hazards incr...
Nigeria
Over the last decade, Nigeria’s growth has just about kept up with population dynamics. Poverty has increased, and food insecurity is rising. The government is constrained by low domestic revenue mobilization. Governance problems remain pervasive. The external environment—cost of financing—remains difficult, high oil and gas prices notwithstanding. The new administration has set out on an ambitious reform path to restore macroeconomic stability and develop a pro-growth reform agenda.
