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Djibouti
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Djibouti’s economic growth, driven by large investment projects, continued its rapid pace in 2014. Aggregate investment reached 44 percent of GDP in 2014 and is expected to peak at 57 percent in 2015–16. GDP growth is expected to rise from 6 percent in 2014 to about 6.5 percent in 2015–16 and to 7 percent in 2017–19. Inflation is projected at 3 percent in 2015 and about 3.5 percent in 2016–18 as a large amount of infrastructure spending increases the demand for housing and services. Central bank gross foreign assets are projected to remain strong, permitting full currency board coverage over the period 2015–20.
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery of Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has strengthened. Real GDP growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in 2014, from 2.7 percent in 2013. Strong growth was attributed to double-digit growth in investment driven by activities in the Technological Industrial Development Zones and public infrastructure, as well as strong private consumption supported by robust credit growth and improving labor market conditions. GDP growth in 2015 is expected to moderate to 3.2 percent, with significant downside risks. A derailment of recent political agreement could negatively impact economic sentiment and growth.
Myanmar
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that recent economic developments in Myanmar have been positive. Growth is estimated to have risen to 61⁄2 percent in FY2012/13 (April–May), driven by gas production, construction and services while inflation climbed to 4.7 percent in March 2013. The external current account deficit is estimated to have widened to about 41⁄2 percent of GDP in FY2012/13, but to have been largely financed by foreign direct investment. The economic outlook remains favorable. Growth is expected to accelerate slightly in FY2013/14, led by rising gas production and investment, including in the transport and telecommunications sectors, and a recovery in agriculture.
The Impact of External Indebtednesson Poverty in Low-Income Countries
This paper explores the relationship between external debt and poverty. A number of observers have argued that high external indebtedness is a major cause of poverty. Using the first-differenced general method of moments (GMM) estimator, the paper models the impact of external debt on poverty, measured by life expectancy, infant mortality, and gross primary enrollment rates, while duly taking into account the impact of external debt on income. The paper thus endeavors to bring together the literature that links external debt with income growth and poverty. The main conclusion is that once the effect of income on poverty has been taken into account, external indebtedness indicators have a limited but important impact on poverty.
Central African Republic
Recent performance suggests further economic stabilization in the Central African Republic, but uncertainties remain related to the general elections. The fiscal program aims at supporting domestic demand, financing the peace process and the elections, and mobilizing more revenue. Structural reform measures are targeted to support the macrofiscal framework through revenue administration reform, better public financial management, and strengthened policy implementation capacity. Payment of government utility bills will help. Executive Directors encourage the authorities to secure bilateral agreements with all external creditors.
Cameroon
In this study, Cameroon’s economic recovery, low inflation, and positive economic prospects have been ascribed. Efforts to improve non-oil revenue by broadening the tax base, streamlining exemptions, and increasing the efficiency of tax and customs administration are outlined. The need to rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen the budget execution process, and accelerate efforts to operationalize the medium-term expenditure framework are emphasized. The importance of redoubling efforts to address the severe infrastructure gap and improve the business climate and competitiveness are also provided.
Central African Economic and Monetary Community
This paper discusses the common policies adopted by the members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The macroeconomic performance was good in 2011 with improved fiscal balances, public investment programs, and higher reserves. However, CEMAC is facing challenges from deep-seated structural problems, including uncoordinated fiscal policy, financial sector weaknesses, and obstacles to growth and competitiveness. The Executive Board recommends monetary policies for financial stability and suggest making monetary policies an efficient tool of macroeconomic management. Also, the Board recommends strengthening of governance of CEMAC’s common institutions.
Islamic Republic of Mauritania
KEY ISSUES Context. Mauritania’s economy has benefited from macroeconomic stability and high growth in the context of contained inflation, responsible macro-policies, high iron ore prices and scaled-up public investment. However, economic growth has not translated into broadly improved living standards and is being hit by a sharp decline in iron ore prices. Outlook and Risks. Although the outlook remains favorable, it hinges heavily on stabilizing iron ore prices and expanding mining capacity. Downside risks to the outlook dominate because iron ore prices may decline further in response to excess supply in the global market. Key Policy Recommendations. With high risk of debt distress and d...
Nicaragua
Nicaragua's economic performance in 2010 was satisfactory. Real GDP grew, supported by strong consumption and investment. Bank credit started recovering while the financial system remained liquid and profitable. Exchange-rate and monetary policy have contributed to macroeconomic stability. The authorities plan to improve public financial management and also to adopt a legal framework and remain committed to contain the macroeconomic risks from external aid flows. They also welcomed the sixth review and Financing Assurances under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.
Angola
This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Angola. The paper reveals that the authorities’ reforms are beginning to bear fruit in terms of achieving key program goals. The heavy foreign exchange market pressures that were evident at the program negotiations stage (September 2009) have eased. The reintroduction of the foreign exchange auction system has led to a significant and orderly adjustment in the official rate, and together with a modest appreciation of the parallel rate, has narrowed the spread between the two markets.
