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The Japanese Yen as an International Currency
The role of the Japanese yen as an international currency is assessed. It is found that the determinants of international-currency use imply some increase for the yen’s use in international finance; however, the implications for the yen’s use in international trade are mixed. It is also shown that, despite Japan’s emergence as the world’s largest net creditor nation, Japan’s capital outflows have not significantly facilitated the yen’s internationalization. Data are presented showing that, although the yen’s use as an international currency has increased, it is still rather modest. Wider use of the yen as a regional currency in Asia has occurred, though a “yen-zone” does not appear to be emerging.
The Internationalization of Currencies
A tripolar international monetary system-centered on the U.S. dollar, the deutsche mark, and the yen - appears to be emerging. This paper not only assesses the role of the yen as an international currency but also presents a unified theory of international currency use and distinguishes between the roles of a nation as a world banker and as an international financial intermediary.
Macroeconomic Linkage
This volume explores East Asia's macroeconomic experience in the 1980s and the economic impact of East Asia's growth on the rest of the world. The authors explore the causes of capital flows, changes in trade balances, and exchange rate fluctuations in East Asia and their effects on other countries. These fourteen papers are organized around four themes: the overall determinants of growth and trading relations in the East Asian region; monetary policies in relation to capital controls and capital accounts; the impact of exchange rate behavior on industrial structure; and the potential for greater regional integration. The contributors examine interactions among exchange rate movements, trade balances, and capital flows; how government monetary policy affects capital flows; the effect of exchange rates on industrial structure, inventories, and prices; and the extent of regional integration in East Asia.
The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries
This paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the develop...
European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall
Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analyzed for European exchange rates, using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables, although there are signs that lower inflation improves credibility. Statistically, many movements to realignment expectations are common to ERM participants. There were few indications of poor ERM credibility before late August 1992; the dimensions of the currency crisis of September 1992 appear to have taken both policy-makers and private agents largely by surprise.
Global Economic Modeling
Global econometric models have a long history. From the early 1970s to the present, as modeling techniques have advanced, different modeling paradigms have emerged and been used to support national and international policy making. One purpose of this volume -- based on a conference in recognition of the seminal impact of Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences Lawrence R Klein, whose pioneering work has spawned the field of international econometric modeling -- is to survey these developments from today's perspective. A second objective of the volume is to shed light on the wide range of attempts to broaden the scope of modeling on an international scale. Beyond new developments in tradition...
