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Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers
We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus (“exit strategies”) by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more strongly than conventional short-term policy rate changes when normalizing by the effects on domestic GDP. We then build a two-country New Keynesian model that features segmented bond markets, cognitive discounting and strategic complementarities in price setting that is consistent with these findings. The model implies that quantitative easing (QE) is the only effective way to provide monetary stimulu...
PPP Strikes Back
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When heterogeneity is properly taken into account, estimates of the real exchange rate half-life fall dramatically, to little more than one year, or significantly below Rogoff's "consensus view" of three to five years. We show that corrected estimates are consistent with plausible nominal rigidities, thus, arguably, solving the PPP puzzle.
Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation?
This paper argues case that a tighter fiscal policy stance can meaningfully support central banks in fighting inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies. While the standard textbook result suggest that monetary policy is much more effective than fiscal policy in battling inflation in open economies due to the exchange rate channel, we show that a tighter fiscal stance is notably more effective in the current situation. This is so because when many countries currently need to tighten the policy stance simultaneously, the exchange rate channel does not provide monetary policy with an edge over fiscal policy. We also show that fiscal consolidation can be helpful in small open emer...
New Perspectives on Quantitative Easing and Central Bank Capital Policies
Central banks have come under increasing criticism for large balance sheet losses associated with quantitative easing (QE), and some observers have also argued that QE helped fuel the post-COVID-19 inflation boom. In this paper, we reconsider the conditions under which QE may be warranted considering the recent high inflation experience. We emphasize that the merits of QE should be evaluated based on the macroeconomic stimulus it provides and its effects on the consolidated fiscal position, and not simply on central bank profits or losses. Using an open economy DSGE model with segmented asset markets, we show how QE can provide a sizeable boost to output and inflation in a deep recession and...
Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far
What is the case for adding the unconventional balance sheet policies used by major central banks since 2007 to the standard policy toolkit? The record so far suggests that the new liquidity providing policies in support of financial stability generally warrant inclusion. As the balance sheet policies aimed at macroeconomic stability were used only by a small number of highly credible central banks facing a lower bound constraint on conventional interest rate policy, they are not relevant for most central banks or states of the world. Best practices of these policies are documented in this paper.
The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update
The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market economies—following the two rounds of refinements adopted since the framework was introduced in 2012 (as described in Phillips et al., 2013). It also presents new complementary tools for shedding light on the role of structural factors in explaining external imbalances and assessing potential biases in the measurement of external positions. Remaining challenges and areas of future work are also discussed.
The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China
Based on China's experience between 1980 and 2002, a cointegrated vector autoregression model was established to explore the relationships among real interest rates, real exchange rates and balance of payments in China. Taking into account institutional changes, the empirical study shows that significant and usually non-monotonic interactions exist between these three variables. The paper discusses theoretical and policy implications of the empirical result.
