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Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans
An assessment of public infrastructure development in the Western Balkans. The paper quantifies the large gaps across various sectors/dimensions, evaluates current infrastructure plans, and discusses funding options available to countries in the region. The paper also identifies important bottlenecks for increased infrastructure investment. Finally, the paper quantifies potential growth benefits from addressing infrastructure gaps, concluding that boosting the quantity and quality of infrastructure is vital for raising economic growth and accelerating income convergence with the EU. The paper concludes with country-specific policy recommendations.
Albania
This paper presents an overview of recent economic developments, outlook, and risks of the Albanian economy. Over the past few years, Albania has successfully maintained macroeconomic stability amid a turbulent external environment. A sizable fiscal consolidation is underway, and public debt is projected to start decreasing in 2016. However, growth remains sluggish due to a weak euro area recovery and risk-averse banks. The policy mix focuses on fiscal adjustment, while supporting growth through gradual monetary easing. The key policy priorities are to lower fiscal vulnerabilities through continued consolidation, revive private sector credit by cleaning up bank balance sheets, and continue implementing growth-friendly structural reforms.
Republic of South Sudan
South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict country, and one of the most vulnerable in the world to climate change effects. The spillovers from the fighting in Sudan have exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation. Two-thirds of South Sudan’s population was exposed to acute food insecurity prior to the outbreak of the conflict in Sudan and the situation has worsened due to a large and growing number of refugees, and a sharp increase in fuel and food prices in the border areas with Sudan driven by trade disruptions. The Sudan war has also delayed the needed repair of the pipeline that transports South Sudan’s crude oil to international markets through Sudan. As a result, oil expor...
International Transactions in Remittances
The International Transactions in Remittance: Guide for Compilers and Users (RCG) presents concepts, definitions, and classifications related to remittances. It is consistent with the new standards for measuring balance of payments transactions, as contained in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). These standards are used globally to compile comprehensive and comparable data. The RCG identifies the main remittances compilation methods currently being used by compilers and discusses in detail the strengths and weaknesses of each method. It is the first manual providing compilation guidance for remittances and is also the first compilation guide based on concepts set out in BPM6. Although the RCG is primarily aimed at remittances data compilers, it may also be useful for users who wish to understand remittances data.
Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability
We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the result...
Niger
Political instability and sanctions following the military takeover last July have severely and persistently affected economic and social conditions. The security situation continues to exacerbate the country's fragility. While working on a new development strategy, the authorities have declared their firm commitment to the objectives of the ECF and RSF-supported programs. After the lifting of sanctions in February 2024, the authorities have resumed full collaboration with WAEMU institutions, despite exiting ECOWAS in late January 2024 (along with Burkina Faso and Mali).
Lifting Growth in the Western Balkans
In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself of this driver of growth and convergence. A lack of openness, reliance on low value products, and weak competitiveness largely explain the insignificant role of trade and exports in the region’s economic performance. This paper focuses on how the countries in the WB could lift exports through stronger integration with global value chains (GVCs) and broadening of services exports. The experience of countries that joined the European Union in or after 2004 s...
Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances
Given the large size of aggregate remittance flows (billions of dollars annually), they should be expected to have significant macroeconomic effects on the economies that receive them. This paper directly addresses the two main issues of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances--how to manage their macroeconomic effects, and how to harness their development potential--by reporting the results of the first global study of the comprehensive macroeconomic effects of remittances on recipient economies. In broad terms, the findings of this paper tend to confirm the main benefit cited in the microeconomic literature: remittances improve households' welfare by lifting families out of pov...
Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances
Given the large size of aggregate remittance flows (billions of dollars annually), they should be expected to have significant macroeconomic effects on the economies that receive them. This paper directly addresses the two main issues of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances--how to manage their macroeconomic effects, and how to harness their development potential--by reporting the results of the first global study of the comprehensive macroeconomic effects of remittances on recipient economies. In broad terms, the findings of this paper tend to confirm the main benefit cited in the microeconomic literature: remittances improve households' welfare by lifting families out of pov...
Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
There are 13 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. This paper uses the framework pioneered by Frankel and Wei (1994) and extended in Frankel and Wei (2008) to show that most of them have been tracking either the euro or the US dollar in recent years. Eight countries, all of them current or aspiring EU members, track the euro. Of the five countries keying on the US dollar in various degrees, all but one belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The paper shows that the extent to which each country’s currency tracks the euro (or the dollar) is correlated with the structure of its external trade and finance. However, some countries appear to track the EUR or USD to an extent which appears inconsistent with inflation targeting, trade or financial integration, or the extent of business cycle synchronization. The phenomenon is particularly pronounced among the countries in the CESEE euro bloc, which may be deliberately gravitating around the euro in anticipation of eventually joining the Euro Area.
