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Market Discipline and Conflicts of Interest Between Banks and Pension Funds
We study the behavior of private pension funds as large depositors in a banking system. Using panel data analysis, we examine whether, and if so how, pension funds influence market discipline in Argentina in the period 1998-2001. We find evidence that pension funds exert market discipline and this discipline gets stronger as the share of pension fund deposits in a bank rises. However, conflicts of interest undermine the disciplining role of pension funds. Specifically, pension funds allocate deposits to banks with weak fundamentals that own pension fund management companies. We conclude that forbidding banks' ownership of companies involved in pension fund management can enhance market discipline.
A Gravity Model of Geopolitics and Financial Fragmentation
Do geopolitical tensions between countries influence the cross-border asset allocation of investment funds? Our answer is yes. We estimate gravity models and find that investment funds allocate smaller shares of their portfolios to recipient countries that are geopolitically more distant to their country of origin—with geopolitical distance measured by dissimilarity in countries’ voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly. We also find an investment diversion effect: a recipient country attracts additional investments when its source countries get geopolitically more distant to third-party countries. These results are robust to instrumenting geopolitical distance and using alternative distance measures.
Bank Capital and Lending: An Extended Framework and Evidence of Nonlinearity
This paper studies the transmission of bank capital shocks to loan supply in Indonesia. A series of theoretically founded dynamic panel data models are estimated and find nonlinear effects of capital on loan growth: the response of weaker banks to changes in their capital positions is larger than that of stronger banks. This non-linearity implies that not only the level of capital but also its distribution across banks in the financial system affects the transmission of shocks to aggregate lending. Likewise, the effects of bank recapitalization on loan growth depend on banks’ starting capital positions and the size of capital injections.
When Banks Punch Back: Macrofinancial Feedback Loops in Stress Tests
In the presence of adverse macroeconomic shocks, simultaneous capital losses in multiple banks can prompt them to contract their balance sheets. These bank responses generate externalities that propagate in the form of macro-financial feedback loops. This paper develops a credit response and externalities analysis model (CREAM) that integrates a disaggregated banking sector into an otherwise standard macroeconomic structural vector autoregressive model. It shows that accounting for macro-financial feedback loops can significantly affect macroeconomic outcomes and bank-specific stress tests results. The heterogeneity in bank lending responses matters: it determines how each bank fares under adverse conditions and the external effects that banks impose on each other and on economic activity. The model can thus be used to assess the contributions of individual banks to systemic risk along the time dimension.
Do Corporate Bond Shocks Affect Commercial Bank Lending?
Understanding how corporate bond market disruptions are transmitted to the rest of the financial system is essential to gauge systemic financial risk and design policy responses. In this study, we extend the vector autoregression model of Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) to explicitly account for the role of commercial banks in the transmission of corporate bond credit spread shocks. We find that corporate bond market shocks can reduce commercial bank lending activity by tightening loan supply. Policies designed to contain stress in the corporate bond market can thus mitigate systemic risk by limiting contagion to the commercial banking sector.
A Tradeoff between the Output and Current Account Effects of Pension Reform
We compare the long-term output and current account effects of pension reforms that increase the retirement age with those of reforms that cut pension benefits, conditional on reforms achieving similar fiscal targets. We show the presence of a policy trade-off. Pension reforms that increase the retirement age have a large positive effect on output, but a small (and often negative) effect on the current account. In contrast, reforms that cut pension benefits improve the current account balance but reduce output. Mixed pension reforms, which extend the working life and cut pension benefits, can simultaneously boost output and the current account.
Scenarios and Indicators for Sustainable Development–Towards A Critical Assessment of Achievements and Challenges
Globalization and telecoupling are enhancing the complexity of the coupled socio-ecological system constituted by the interaction between the global ecosphere and the anthroposphere. As a result, the demand for tools to identify transformative innovations, assess future risks, and support precautionary decisions for sustainability is growing by the day in business and politics. Scenarios are a means of simplification, reducing the real-world complexity to a limited number of essential factors to analyze their interactions and support policy formulation, with indicators as communication and monitoring tools. In particular, in a time of “fake news” and “alternative truths” a critical r...
Security and Privacy in Communication Networks
This two-volume set LNICST 254-255 constitutes the post-conference proceedings of the 14thInternational Conference on Security and Privacy in Communication Networks, SecureComm 2018, held in Singapore in August 2018. The 33 full and 18 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 108 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on IoT security, user and data privacy, mobile security, wireless security, software security, cloud security, social network and enterprise security, network security, applied cryptography, and web security.
Diplomatic List
Directory of foreign diplomatic officers in Washington.
