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GPM6
This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
List of Delegations
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A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy
This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses
This paper distills and identifies global liquidity (GL) momenta from the macro-financial data of advanced economies through a factor model with sign restrictions as policy-driven, market-driven, and risk averseness factors. Using a panel factor-augmented VAR, we investigate responses of emerging market economies (EMEs) to GL shocks. A policy-driven liquidity increase boosts growth in EMEs, elevating stock prices and currency values, while a risk averseness rise has an opposite effect. A market-driven GL expansion boosts stock markets and lowers funding costs, promoting competitiveness and current account. Inflation targeting EMEs fare better than EMEs under alternative regimes with respect to macrofinancial volatility.
Web Cartography
Maps and atlases are created as soon as information on our geography has been clarified. They are used to find directions or to get insight into spatial relations. They are produced and used both on paper as well as on-screen. The Web is the new medium for spreading and using maps. This book explains the benefits of this medium from the perspective of the user, and the map provider. Opportunities and pitfalls are illustrated by a set of case-studies. A website accompanies the book and provides a dynamic environment for demonstrating many of the principles set out in the text, including access to a basic course in Internet cartography as well as links to other interesting places on the Web. Professor Kraak looks at basic questions such as "I have this data what can I do with it?" and discusses the various functions of maps on the web. Web Cartography also looks at the particularities of multidimensional web maps and addresses topics such as map contents (colour, text and symbols), map physics (size and resolution), and the map environment (interface design/site contents).
A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security
This book explores the potential for policy reform as a short-term, low-cost way to sustainably enhance global food security. It argues that reforming policies that distort food prices and trade will promote the openness needed to maximize global food availability and reduce fluctuations in international food prices. Beginning with an examination of historical trends in markets and policies, Anderson assesses the prospects for further reforms, and projects how they may develop over the next fifteen years. He pays particular attention to domestic policy changes made possible by the information technology revolution, which will complement global change to deal directly with farmer and consumer concerns.
