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Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?
The role of remittances in development and economic growth is not well understood. This is partly because the literatures on the causes and effects of remittances remain separate. We develop a framework that links the motivation for remittances with their effect on economic activity. Because remittances take place under asymmetric information and economic uncertainty, there exists a significant moral hazard problem. The implication is that remittances have a negative effect on economic growth. We test this prediction using panel methods on a large sample of countries. The results indicate that remittances do have a negative effect on economic growth, which indicates that the moral hazard problem in remittances is severe.
Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies
We explore a model intended to capture the interaction between exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, and outright default on foreign-currency denominated debt. We examine how the exchange rate affects the supply of short-term debt facing the government. We show that under a credible hard peg (currency board), default is a more likely outcome, even without an exceptionally large short-term debt, precisely because a devaluation is not an option. In a more conventional fixed peg, it can be optimal for the government to choose a level of the exchange rate that would be likely to result in partial or complete debt default. Depending on the exchange rate regime, multiple equilibria exist, in one of which the interest rate is high, the exchange rate is overvalued, output is low, and default is high. Under a hard peg, there is a unique equilibrium.
Making Monetary Policy More Effective
The paper looks at the challenges of conducting monetary policy in a context of high dollarization of the banking system and weak institutions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The empirical analysis confirms the limited effectiveness of the Central Bank of Congo in controlling inflation, despite a rapid policy response to inflation shocks. Options available to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy are limited. After exploring the pros and cons of different exchange regimes we conclude that strengthening the current monetary policy framework remains the first-best option, given the country’s exposure to frequent terms-of-trade shocks.
Ghana
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. The emergence of large fiscal and external imbalances in recent years, which led to a slowdown in growth, is putting Ghana’s medium-term prospects at risk. The Government’s efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation since mid-2013 have been undermined by policy slippages, external shocks and rising interest cost. Until mid- 2014, the net international reserves position had further weakened and the exchange rate depreciated sharply, fueling inflationary pressures. The situation has stabilized on the back of the Eurobond issued in September and a short-term loan contracted by the Cocoa Board, but public debt continued to rise at an unsustainable pace. Extended Credi...
Republic of Madagascar
This paper examines Madagascar’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Madagascar’s performance under the program was broadly satisfactory, taking into account the impact of the exogenous shocks and corrective actions taken by the authorities. Efforts to bring tax revenue and net foreign assets—the two indicative targets missed at end-June—back on track over the summer were successful. Progress was also made in structural reform, although with some delays.
Financial Stability Reports
The global financial crisis has renewed policymakers' interest in improving the policy framework for financial stability, and an open question is to what extent and in what form should financial stability reports be part of it. We examine the recent experience with central banks' financial stability reports, and find?despite some progress in recent years?that forward-looking perspective and analysis of financial interconnectedness are often lacking. We also find that higher-quality reports tend to be associated with more stable financial environments. However, there is only a weak empirical link between financial stability report publication per se and financial stability. This suggests room for improvement in terms of the quality of financial stability reports.
Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances
Given the large size of aggregate remittance flows (billions of dollars annually), they should be expected to have significant macroeconomic effects on the economies that receive them. This paper directly addresses the two main issues of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances--how to manage their macroeconomic effects, and how to harness their development potential--by reporting the results of the first global study of the comprehensive macroeconomic effects of remittances on recipient economies. In broad terms, the findings of this paper tend to confirm the main benefit cited in the microeconomic literature: remittances improve households' welfare by lifting families out of pov...
The Millennium Development Goals, Capacity Building, and the Role of the IMF
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) represent a global commitment to improve economic and social conditions in low-income countries. Capacity building is key to promoting higher economic growth, which, in turn, is an important prerequisite for making progress toward the MDGs. This paper uses the UNDP's emerging framework for capacity building to show how the IMF supports capacity building at the individual, organizational, and the system level, thereby contributing to the efforts of countries to meeting the MDGs.
The Landscape of Capital Flows to Low-Income Countries
This paper reviews trends in capital flows and capital-like flows such as official grants and remittances to low-income countries over the period 1981-2006. The survey reveals a broadbased increase in such flows as a share of low-income country GDP across major regions, countries with differing commodity export composition, and countries with differing debt relief status. The increase in inflows is dominated by an increase in private sector inflows, mostly in the form of private transfers and foreign direct investment. Official sector inflows have remained comparatively constant as a share of low-income country GDP and even declined in the most recent years. The paper concludes with some tentative policy conclusions and has a discussion of data issues in the annexes.
The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) Opportunities and Challenges
This paper reviews major issues involved in achieving the objectives of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). Using a simple framework for evaluation, the analysis highlights considerations relevant to policymakers in the areas of poverty reduction, macroeconomic policies, trade promotion, attracting capital flows, and governance and institutional reforms. The analysis also identifies risks involved in achieving NEPAD's objectives. To minimize these risks, it will be important to make some goals more operational, to further broaden and deepen stakeholder participation, to establish a sound basis for monitoring progress, to prepare contingency plans, and to harmonize the role of regional institutions with NEPAD initiatives.
