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Republic of Kosovo
Recent developments, outlook, and risks. Kosovo’s economy has continued to perform well, despite a challenging external environment. Real GDP growth moderated to 31⁄4 percent in 2023 amid subdued external demand. Inflation has decelerated sharply, reaching 2 percent y/y in the first quarter of 2024. Growth is projected to accelerate to 33⁄4 percent in 2024, driven by domestic demand. Key risks to the outlook include commodity price spikes due to geopolitical tensions, weaker activity in advanced European economies, and an escalation of tensions in northern Kosovo.
Republic of Serbia
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Serbia’s economy has strengthened impressively since the adoption of the economic program supported by the Stand-By Arrangement. Economic growth is expected to reach 3 percent in 2017. The fiscal deficit should narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP—the lowest level since 2005—and public debt is heading down faster than projected. Contrary to expectations, the larger than planned fiscal tightening has been associated with increased growth, reflecting the confidence engendered by decisively tackling the public debt sustainability concerns. Moreover, unemployment is falling sharply, along with the level of banks’ nonperforming loans, while inflation has been maintained at low levels.
Republic of Serbia: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Request for a 30-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia
Recent economic developments. Supported by a large policy package, Serbia’s economy rebounded quickly from the initial COVID-19 shock, recording a 1 percent contraction of real GDP in 2020. Job losses have mostly been contained to the informal sector, thanks to policy measures aimed at preserving formal employment. A supplementary budget for 2021 was adopted in April boosting capital expenditure and extending policy support to households and corporates, against the background of third and fourth waves of infections and related containment measures, as well as a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in key trading partners. Inflation remains low. After rising again in late February, infections tapered, helped by new containment measures and the rapid vaccine rollout.
Caribbean Energy
High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.
Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America
How has Latin America coped with external shocks and economic vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the global financial crisis? Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America looks at how the region has fared in recent years in an environment of uncertainty. It presents a collection of novel contributions on capital flows, terms of trade, and macroeconomic policy in Latin America. The rigorous expert analysis offers an up-to-date guide to many of the key economic policy questions in the region. Chapters focus on important analytical issues, including assessing reserves adequacy and current account levels. The roles of macroeconomic policies and exchange rates regimes in coping with large capital inflows are examined, as well as the effectiveness of both monetary policy and fiscal policy in dealing with economic challenges in the region.
Spain
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Spain’s economy has continued its recovery. Real GDP expanded by 3.2 percent in 2015 with the same growth rate expected for 2016, despite a prolonged period of domestic political uncertainty. Nearly 1.1 million jobs were created over the past two years. The rebound in private consumption, exports, and investment, aided by past reforms, has remained the main driver of growth. The current account is projected to record its fourth consecutive annual surplus. Private sector balance sheets have further strengthened, while public debt remains high at about 100 percent of GDP. Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 2.3 percent in 2017.
Latin America
This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is excessive compared to long-term trends; (ii) trends in house prices reflect changes in economic fundamentals; and (iii) the extent to which household and banking sector vulnerabilities could lead to potential fragilities. Although data limitations hamper a rigorous analysis of trends, our analysis suggests that while there are no imminent misalignments in the real estate and mortgage sectors, they could emerge if current trends persist. Strengthening supervision and addressing data gaps is thus critical to ensure adequate monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities in these sectors.
Sub-Saharan African Migration
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the regio...
Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
