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Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Islamic Republic of Mauritania
The Mauritanian economy is expected to slow down in 2024 with a growth rate estimated at 4.6 percent (compared to 6.5 percent in 2023), reflecting sluggish extractive sector. Inflation is contained and the current account (CA) deficit is narrowing. The outlook is subject to significant risks, including an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region, and weather shocks. Moreover, challenges related to infrastructure, governance, vulnerability to economic shocks, and limited economic diversification constrain Mauritania’s economic development.
Benin
Benin’s strong reform drive and sound macroeconomic management over the past several years have provided policy space to bolster resilience to repeated shocks. The authorities started rebuilding policy buffers last year and recently regained access to the international capital market after a two-year hiatus. Budget support has consistently exceeded expectations. While the country’s reform program—supported by the ECF (2017–20) and the ongoing EFF/ECF (2022–25)—has generated tangible macroeconomic dividends and improved aggregate social outcomes, large disparities have persisted across regions and income groups. A key challenge ahead is how to leverage the initial government’s impetus to pursue the transition to private sector-led growth that benefits all Beninese.
Benin
The Beninese government embarked, five years ago, on an ambitious reform agenda (“Revealing Benin”) to revive the economy and improve the wellbeing of the people. Economic activity accelerated prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, with sound macroeconomic management and enhanced budget transparency culminating in access to international capital markets in 2019 and issuance of the first-ever SDG bond by an African sovereign last year. However, today, Benin faces significant headwinds from a deteriorating security situation at its northern borders, pandemic-induced scars, and higher cost of living amidst the war in Ukraine, which could impact hard-won macroeconomic gains and cause hardship. The authorities have requested a Fund-supported program to meet pressing financing needs, preserve macroeconomic stability, and anchor the country’s National Development Plan centered on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Energy Subsidy Reform
Energy subsidies are aimed at protecting consumers, however, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. This book provides the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries and an analysis of “how to do” energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by the IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.
Public Wage Bills in the Middle East and Central Asia
Analysis of policies for managing public sector wage bills in the Middle East and Central Asia region. While some work has been done recently at the Fund on issues related to government employment and compensation, to our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically examine, with a focus on the Middle East and Central Asia region, the recent trends and drivers of public wage bills in the region and to identify key policy implications.
Benin
This technical report discusses the results of the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) of Benin, undertaken in March 2023 to update a previous assessment based on an October 2017 mission. The mission found out that public investment in Benin has significantly increased from its 2019 low and should help sustain progress in terms of physical access to infrastructure. The assessment highlighted progress since the late 2017 PIMA with respect to the institutional framework for public investment management, facilitated by the adoption of a comprehensive PIM legal framework. It also identified areas where effectiveness is still lagging, notably in terms of project appraisal and selection...
Opportunity for All
This publication brings together a set of IMF papers that prepared as backgrounds for the various sessions of the conference and will help put into broader dissemination channels the results of this important conference. An official IMF publication is well disseminated into academic and institutional libraries and book channels. The IMF metadata will also make the conference papers more discoverable online.
The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes
Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.
Fair Taxation in the Middle East and North Africa
Fairness – and what governments can do about it – is at the forefront of economic and social debate all over the world. In MENA, this has been at the core of recent political transitions but has not been adequately addressed. This SDN explores how tax systems – a critical interface between the state and citizens – can play a role in meeting demands for greater economic fairness in MENA countries. The SDN finds that for countries with well-established non-hydrocarbon tax systems (mostly oil importers) reforms should focus on simplifying tax structures and introducing more progressivity of personal income taxes, broadening tax bases, and better designing and enforcing property taxes. T...
