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What is Driving Women’s Financial Inclusion Across Countries?
Using a broad set of macroeconomic country characteristics to supplement a new and comprehensive micro-level dataset for 140 countries, we identify structural factors, policies, and individual characteristics that are associated with financial inclusion—in general, and for women in particular. We find that structural country characteristics, such as resource-richness and level of development, and policies, such as stronger institutions, and financial development are significantly related to financial inclusion. We find a robust negative relationship between being female and financial inclusion as in previous studies, and our analysis points to legal discrimination, lack of protection from harassment, including at the work place, and more diffuse gender norms as possible explanatory factors.
Navigating External Shocks in Southeast Asia's Emerging Markets
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integ...
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targe...
Economic Diversification in Developing Countries
This paper examines the significance and impact of broad-based and industrial policies on economic diversification in developing economies, supported by a literature review, case studies, and IMF analyses. Economic diversification entails shifting from traditional sectors, like agriculture and mining, to a variety of high-quality services and sectors. This transition is crucial for adapting to global market fluctuations and promoting sustainable growth and improved living standards. A literature review, including many IMF contributions, reveals a strong correlation between economic diversification and improved macroeconomic performance in developing countries, such as faster economic growth ...
Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies
This study analyzes the drivers of the use of formal vs. informal financial services in emerging and developing countries using the 2017 Global FINDEX data. In particular, we investigate whether individuals’ choice of financial services correlates with macro-financial and macro-structural policies and conditions, in addition to individual and country characteristics. We start our analysis on middle and low-income countries, and then zoom in on sub-Saharan Africa, currently the region that most relies on informal financial services, and which has the largest uptake of mobile banking. We find robust evidence of an association between macroprudential policies and individuals’ choice of financial access after controlling for personal and country-level characteristics. In particular, macroprudential policies aimed at controlling credit supply seem to be associated with greater resort to informal financial services compared with formal, bank-based access. This highlights the importance for central bankers and financial sector regulators to consider the potential spillovers of monetary policy and financial stability measures on financial inclusion.
Inequality in Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality
We investigate the link between gender inequality in financial inclusion and income inequality, with three contributions to the recent literature. First, using a micro-dataset covering 146,000 individuals in over 140 countries, we construct novel, synthetic indices of the intensity of financial inclusion at the individual and country level. Second, we derive the distribution of individual financial access “scores” across countries to document a “Kuznets”-curve in financial inclusion. Third, cross-country regressions confirm that our measure of inequality in financial access is significantly related to income inequality, above and beyond other factors previously highlighted in the literature.
Excerpt: Women, Work, and Economic Growth
This paper analyzes various linkages and interconnections between gender inequality and the macroeconomy. The prevalence of gender inequality, particularly the presence of gender gaps in the labor force and in economic opportunities, can weigh on and impede inclusive growth. The precise nature of gender gaps varies, but in the majority of countries there are differences between men and women in decision-making power, economic participation, access to opportunities, and social norms and expectations. The analysis shows that gender gaps in pay and in access to resources, occupations, and credit, among other things, not only have negative microeconomic effects on women but also imply large costs for the aggregate economy. Differences in economic outcomes may be a consequence of unequal opportunities and enabling conditions for men and women and for boys and girls. Raising female participation could provide an important boost to growth, but women face two hurdles in participating in the workforce in Japan.
What is Driving Women’s Financial Inclusion Across Countries?
Using a broad set of macroeconomic country characteristics to supplement a new and comprehensive micro-level dataset for 140 countries, we identify structural factors, policies, and individual characteristics that are associated with financial inclusion—in general, and for women in particular. We find that structural country characteristics, such as resource-richness and level of development, and policies, such as stronger institutions, and financial development are significantly related to financial inclusion. We find a robust negative relationship between being female and financial inclusion as in previous studies, and our analysis points to legal discrimination, lack of protection from harassment, including at the work place, and more diffuse gender norms as possible explanatory factors.
Sub-Saharan Africa's Integration in the Global Financial Markets
The paper uses a unique database covering 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries between 2000 and 2007 to study the determinants of the allocation and composition of flows across countries, as well as channels through which private capital flows could affect growth. In our sample, the degree of financial market development is an important determinant of the distribution of capital flows across countries as opposed to property rights institutions. The fairly consistent positive association between net capital flows and growth for SSA countries contrasts with the more pessimistic results of recent studies, though our data do not allow us to make conclusive inferences about a causality relationship.
Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
