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Finance and Marcoeconomic Volatility
Countries with more developed financial sectors, experience fewer fluctuations in real per capita output, consumption, and investment growth. But the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining consumption, and investment volatility. The proportion of credit provided to the private sector, best explains volatility of consumption, and output. The authors generate their main results using fixed-effects estimates with panel data from seventy countries for the years 1956-98. Their general findings suggest that the risk management, and information processing provided by banks, maybe especially important in reducing consumption, and investment volatility. The simple availability of credit to the private sector, probably helps smooth consumption, and GDP.
War, Peace, and Prosperity in the Name of God
In "Conflict, Peace, and Prosperity in the Name of God," Murat Iyigun explores how longer-term developments influenced the spread of monotheistic religions and how these trends affected other societies and religions. He explores with the statistical methods of economics the way religions shaped the development of societies and framed the conflicts between and within them. Specifically, he asks why and how political power and organized religion became so swiftly and successfully intertwined, and then examines the role of religion in conflict historically, as well as the sociopolitical, demographic, and economic effects of religiously motivated conflicts." Conflict, Peace, and Prosperity in the Name of God "breaks exciting new ground in our understanding of religion and societies, and the conflicts between them."
International Investment Law and Development
International investment law has often been seen as an obstacle to sustainable development. While the connections between investment and development are plain, for a long time there has been relatively little scholarship exploring them. Combining critical reflection and detailed analysis, this book addresses the relationship between contemporary investment law and development. The book is organized around two competing visions of investment and development - as working either harmoniously or in conflict with one another. The expert contributors reflect on both of these views and analyse the social dimensions of development and its impact on investment law. Coverage includes in-depth discussion on such issues as human rights, poverty reduction, labor standards, and indigenous peoples. Students and scholars of international investment law will benefit from the informed analysis of the links between investment and development. This book will also be of use to practitioners and experts of development law who are looking for an up-to-date perspective of the field.
Financial Structures and Economic Outcomes
This paper investigates the potential relationships between financial structures and economic outcomes. The empirical results that withstand a battery of methods suggest that some financial intermediation structures are likely to be more closely related to positive economic outcomes than others. For instance, protective financial buffers within institutions have been associated with better economic performance, and a domestic financial system that is dominated by some types of nontraditional bank intermediation or that has a high proportion of foreign banks has in some cases been associated with adverse economic outcomes, especially during the financial crisis. The results also suggest that there may be trade-offs between beneficial effects on growth and stability of some financial structures. For example, the positive association of financial buffers with growth can diminish above a certain, relatively high, threshold—a too-safe system may limit the available funds for credit and hence growth.
High Frequency Data, Frequency Domain Inference and Volatility Forecasting
While it is clear that the volatility of asset returns is serially correlated, there is no general agreement as to the most appropriate parametric model for characterizing this temporal dependence. In this paper, we propose a simple way of modeling financial market volatility using high frequency data. The method avoids using a tight parametric model, by instead simply fitting a long autoregression to log-squared, squared or absolute high frequency returns. This can either be estimated by the usual time domain method, or alternatively the autoregressive coefficients can be backed out from the smoothed periodogram estimate of the spectrum of log-squared, squared or absolute returns. We show how this approach can be used to construct volatility forecasts, which compare favorably with some leading alternatives in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise.
World Capital Markets
This study analyzes the supply side of the international financial architecture. It asks the question: How can G-10 capital suppliers reform their system to contribute to a safer world of capital mobility? It contains coverage of capital flows and the benefits of cross-border capital flows.
The Son Also Rises
"How much of our fate is tied to the status of our parents and grandparents? How much does this influence our children? More than we wish to believe! While it has been argued that rigid class structures have eroded in favor of greater social equality, The Son Also Rises proves that movement on the social ladder has changed little over eight centuries. Using a novel technique -- tracking family names over generations to measure social mobility across countries and periods -- renowned economic historian Gregory Clark reveals that mobility rates are lower than conventionally estimated, do not vary across societies, and are resistant to social policies. The good news is that these patterns are driven by strong inheritance of abilities and lineage does not beget unwarranted advantage. The bad news is that much of our fate is predictable from lineage. Clark argues that since a greater part of our place in the world is predetermined, we must avoid creating winner-take-all societies."--Jacket.
The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy
We examine a central bank's endogenous choice of degree of control and degree of transparency, under both commitment and discretion. Under commitment, we find that the deliberate choice of sloppy control is far less likely under a standard central-bank loss function than reported for a less-standard loss function by Cukierman and Meltzer. Under discretion, the maximum degree of control is the only equilibrium. With regard to the degree of transparency, under commitment, a sufficiently patient bank with sufficiently low average inflation bias will always choose minimum transparency. Under discretion, both minimum and maximum transparency are equilibria. We argue that discretion is the more realistic assumption for the choice of control and that commitment is more realistic for the choice of transparency. A maximum feasible degree of control with a minimum degree of transparency is then a likely outcome. The Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System are, arguably, examples of this outcome.
Evolving Households
The transformative effect of technological change on households and culture, seen from a macroeconomic perspective through simple economic models. In Evolving Households, Jeremy Greenwood argues that technological progress has had as significant an effect on households as it had on industry. Taking a macroeconomic perspective, Greenwood develops simple economic models to study such phenomena as the rise in married female labor force participation, changes in fertility rates, the decline in marriage, and increased longevity. These trends represent a dramatic transformation in everyday life, and they were made possible by advancements in technology. Greenwood also addresses how technological p...
