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Macroeconomic Models for Adjustment in Developing Countries
This volume, edited by Mohsin S. Khan, Peter J. Montiel, and Nadeem U. Haque, examines recent IMF-developed empirical macroeconomic models dealing with adjustment and stabilization policies in developing countries. Some models are relevant for specific countries, and others relate to groups of developing countries.
Bringing Life to Ethics
Enlarges the meaning and scope of inquiry into our values, relationships, and treatment of animals, the environment, and each other.
The Coming Prosperity
The Coming Prosperity disarms the current narratives of fear and brings to light the vast new opportunities in the expanding global economy.
Labor Market Representation in Quantitative Macroeconomic Models for Developing Countries
This paper presents a quantitative macroeconomic model that accounts for key features of the labor market in developing countries. Primarily inspired by Côte d’Ivoire, the model contrasts a formal urban sector, where wages are rigidly fixed and employment is submitted to firms profit-seeking behavior, to urban and rural informal sectors, where wages are flexible and employment is affected by fluctuations in formal sector employment. Dynamic simulations assess the impact on key macroeconomic variables of a terms of trade improvement, a public wage decrease, and an exchange rate adjustment, highlighting the roles of rural-urban migrations and capital accumulation in the informal urban sector.
IMF Staff papers, Volume 43 No. 3
This paper examines the volatility and predictability of emerging stock markets. A range of measures suggests that, despite perceptions to the contrary, the volatility of emerging markets may have fallen rather than risen on average. Also, although the autocorrelations in emerging market returns appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more, the magnitude of these return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries.
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.
Informational Efficiency, Interest Rate Variability, and Central Bank Operations
It is shown how the frequency of central bank intervention in financial markets can affect the incentives for economic agents to acquire information, which will be reflected in market prices and thus become available to policy makers. The optimal frequency of intervention, and therefore the optimal interest rate variability, will balance the desirability of attaining given operational targets against the benefits of encouraging informational efficiency. The ability of the central bank to send clear signals of its own intentions will also depend on market informational efficiency.
Internal Migration, Center-State Grants and Economic Growth in the States of India
This paper examines the growth experience of twenty states of India during the period 1961-91, using cross-sectional estimation and the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. We find evidence of absolute convergence--initially-poor states did indeed grow faster than their initially-rich counterparts. There has also been a widening of the dispersion of real per capita state incomes over the period 1961-91. However, relatively more grants were transferred from the central government to the poor states than to their rich counterparts. Significant barriers to population flows also exist, as net migration from poor to rich states responded only weakly to cross-state income differentials.
Reinvigorating Growth in Developing Countries
This study examines the links between adjustment policies and growth in a small group of developing countries- Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, India, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, and Thailand - during 1970 -93. It provides an overview of the adjustment and growth experience, examines in depth several policy issues of particular interest, and distills the principal policy lessons for the design of adjustment policies.
