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Fiscal Risk Sharing in China: Is It Significant and How to Further Improve It?
The COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the fiscal positions of local governments in China, while the recent stress in the Chinese property market has further compounded this issue, calling for stronger fiscal risk sharing among provinces. This paper examines the existing central to local governmental transfer system and its effect on interprovincial risk sharing and redistribution in China. We show that the fiscal transfers have played an important role in risk sharing although their main purpose is still redistribution. We also propose an alternative transfer mechanism with the size of transfers to each province linked to the shocks that the province is facing to enhance the fiscal risk-sharing effect. Using counterfactual simulations, we show that such an alternative mechanism can significantly enhance risk sharing among all provinces against idiosyncratic shocks while maintaining a comparable level of redistribution effect. Intergovernmental reforms and other structural measures could also be considered to further improve policy efficiency and effectiveness.
Currencies in Turbulence: Exploring the Impact of Natural Disasters on Exchange Rates
This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on exchange rate movements in different country groups with different exchange rate regimes. Using a panel local projection model with a high-frequency monthly dataset of 177 countries during 1970M1-2019M12, we find that exchange rate movements are more sensitive to natural disasters in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs) than in advanced economies (AEs). Furthermore, exchange rate reactions to natural shocks depend on exchange rate regimes adopted by EMDEs. On average, both nominal and real exchange rates could depreciate up to 6 percents two years after the disasters in non-pegged regimes. Our findings suggest that EMDEs with flexible exchange rate regimes would observe a faster recovery through nominal and real depreciations, although they should be mindful about policy implications that may arise from large exchange rate fluctuations caused by natural disaster shocks.
The Caucasus and Central Asia
The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.
Republic of Poland
Poland’s macroeconomic performance was strong during the global crisis, supported by sound economic policies. The previous Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangements served the Polish economy well and provided adequate insurance against negative spillover risks. Executive Directors emphasized the need to implement economic policies that preserve macroeconomic stability. Against this background, Directors approved the request for a new two-year arrangement under the FCL, which would provide an essential buffer against a possible increase in risk aversion. The authorities intend to treat the new FCL arrangement as a precautionary instrument.
Republic of Belarus
The paper considers the relatively low level of diversification of Belarusian exports relative to peers, and barriers to higher export potential. Belarus faces different trade regimes vis-à-vis its largest trading partner, Russia, in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU); and its second-largest, the European Union (EU). The paper discusses tariff and nontariff barriers within the EEU; the more restrictive trade relations with the EU; and other potential barriers to trade, including logistics and limited trade facilitation. WTO accession would help improve export competitiveness. Further EEU integration could also boost trade potential, but with the attendant risk that trading links become more concentrated rather than diversified. Belarus’s largest revealed comparative advantages are in areas where it is difficult to move into new products. Belarus’s trade patterns are significantly more concentrated than those of peer countries. Belarus has lowered tariffs in recent years, including in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
2015 Spillover Report
Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.
How Emerging Europe Came Through the 2008/09 Crisis
Emerging Europe was particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis, but a concerted effort by local policymakers and the international community staved off impending financial meltdown and laid the foundations for renewed convergence with western Europe. This book, written by staff of the IMF's European Department that worked on the region at the time, provides a unique account of events: the origins of the crisis and the precrisis policy setting; the crisis trigger and the scramble to avoid the worst; the stabilization and recovery; the remaining challenges; and the lessons for the future. Five regional chapters provide the analytics to put events into perspective. Dedicated chapters for all 19 countries of the region dig deeper into the idiosyncrasies of each economy and provide extensive economic data. A final chapter distills the lessons from the overall regional experience and the wide intraregional diversity. Taken together, they make this book an indispensible reference for economic scholars of the region and beyond.
Republic of Kazakhstan
KEY ISSUES Context: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014). Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth. The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structura...
Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating economic and humanitarian impact. The frontlines remain stalled as combat continues in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russia quit the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July and has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure. The war is severely impacting human and physical capital, with large-scale loss of life, drop in living standards, rise in poverty, and damage to infrastructure. Despite the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the authorities’ skillful policymaking to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, continuous external support is critical to help restore medium-term external viability, prepare the country for post-war recovery and reconstruction, and facilitate Ukraine’s path to EU accession for which the European Commission (EC) has recommended opening accession negotiations.
A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.
