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Romania
The program of budget restraint and reduction of the quasi-fiscal losses, supported by the IMF's Stand-By Arrangement, was successful in bringing domestic demand down to sustainable levels, lowering inflation, and narrowing the current account deficit. The stabilization effort was supported by the fiscal policy. A sensitivity analysis is used to assess banking sector vulnerabilities. The Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF) is operating satisfactorily but will need to strengthen its resources considerably to provide a sufficient level of support. The insurance sector is small and underdeveloped.
Firm-Level Digitalization and Resilience to Shocks: Role of Fiscal Policy
Firm-level Digitalization and Resilience to Shocks: Role of Fiscal Policy
The Role of Structural Fiscal Policy on Female Labor Force Participation in OECD Countries
This paper examines the role of structural fiscal policies to promote female labor force participation and reduce gender gaps in labor markets in 26 OECD countries from 2000 to 2019. As both female labor force participation and many explanatory/control variables clearly exhibit non-stationarity (potentially leading to spurious regression results), we employ a panel vector error-correction model, in contrast with most previous empirical studies on this matter. Our analyses confirm statistically significant positive impacts of government spending on (1) early childcare and education, (2) active labor market programs, and (3) unemployment benefits, all of which would help encourage women to enter the labor force, while (4) an increase in relative tax rate on second earner could have negative impact on female labor force participation.
Ukraine
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Cancellation of Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). Despite tangible progress under the SBA, the crisis in Ukraine has increased its balance of payments and adjustment needs beyond what can be achieved under the current program. The authorities’ new four-year IMF-supported program aims to decisively address these challenges. The program lays out a strategy to restore financial and economic stability and resolve long-standing structural obstacles to growth. In view of Ukraine’s large external financing needs and the authorities’ strong policy commitments, the IMF staff supports approval of Ukraine’s four-year Extended Arrangement under the EFF with access equivalent to SDR 12.348 billion.
How China Grows
Why investment and financial reform are essential to China's continued economic well-being Although China's economy has grown spectacularly over the last twenty-five years, economists disagree about how the Chinese economy is likely to fare in the short- and long-term future. Is China's growth sustainable, or has China relied too much on investment, which is subject to diminishing returns, and not enough on technological change? The first book on the relation between investment, finance, and growth in China, How China Grows dismisses this concern. James Riedel, Jing Jin, and Jian Gao argue that investment has not only been the engine of growth, but also the main source of technological progr...
Fiscal Policy Response to External Crises the Case of Moldova 1998-2010
External shocks pose major challenges to fiscal policy makers through lower output and large fiscal imbalances. This paper analyzes the case of Moldova, which faced parallel crises a decade apart: the Russian crisis of 1998 and the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The country went through large fiscal adjustments during these crises and launched important fiscal reforms. The paper reviews the crises and reform experience. In particular, it aims to explain the motivation for reforms, describe reform design and implementation, and provide an understanding of their outcomes. The paper also catalogues the form and size of international assistance for Moldova.
Policies for Macrofinancial Stability
This note explores the costs and benefits of different policy options to reduce the risks associated with credit booms, drawing upon several country experiences and the findings from econometric analysis.
Financial Development, Integration and Stability
Financial industries in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe have undergone dramatic changes over the past decade. Foreign direct investment contributed to the development of market-oriented banking and financial systems able to support the rapid pace of economic growth in these countries. Policymakers, academics and private sector analysts have contributed to this volume with their stimulating insights on a broad range of issues, from recent credit booms to the cross-border integration of banking and capital markets. Anyone who wants to understand how finance, growth and financial stability interact in transition economies should read this book. Mario Draghi, Governor of the Banca d It...
Strengthening Public Expenditure Efficiency: Investment and Social Spending in Bulgaria
The scope for increasing public spending to meet Bulgaria’s development needs is limited by low revenue. Increasing the efficiency of spending is, therefore, crucial. This paper discusses how this can be achieved in four areas (public investment, social protection, health, and education). The methodology is based on a triple benchmarking. First, the level of public expenditure in each category is compared to other European countries. Second, the impact of spending is assessed against other European countries. Third, the input mix is analyzed to understand what components are responsible for the level of spending and for the quality of outcomes. Based on these results, the paper provides policy options for expenditure reform.
