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Crisis Economics
This myth-shattering book reveals the methods Roubini used to foretell the current crisis before other economists saw it coming and shows how those methods can help to make sense of the present and prepare for the future.
Megathreats
A Financial Times Economics Book of the Year A Times Business Book of the Year A Sunday Independent (Ireland) Book of the Year 'People who like horror films will love this book' Financial Times 'Forewarned is forearmed. Read and pay attention' Martin Wolf 'Not only will the reader be better off after reading this book, but the world will be a better place' Nassim Nicholas Taleb We are heading towards the worst economic catastrophe of our lifetimes - unless we can defend against ten terrifying threats. World renowned economist Nouriel Roubini was nicknamed Dr. Doom until his warnings of the 2008 housing crisis and Great Financial Crisis came true - when it was too late. Now he's back with muc...
Summary of Nouriel Roubini's Megathreats
Buy now to get the main key ideas from Nouriel Roubini's Megathreats In Megathreats (2022), economist Nouriel Roubini argues that humanity is speeding toward its worst financial crisis ever. The world is threatened by interconnected economic, technological, environmental, political, and demographic dangers, which he calls megathreats. If we cannot work together to tackle them with utter urgency, a dystopian society will emerge within the next few decades.
A Growth Model of Inflation, Tax Evasion, and Financial Repression
In this paper we study the effects of policies of financial repression on long term growth and try to explain why optimizing governments might want to repress the financial sector. We also explain why inflation may be negatively related to growth, even though it does not affect growth directly. We argue that the main reason why governments repress the financial sector is that this sector is the source of "easy" resources for the public budget The source of revenue stemming from this intervention is modeled through the inflation tax. Our model has the implication that financial development reduces money demand. Hence, if the government allows for financial development the inflation tax base, ...
Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
SuperHubs
A BLOOMBERG BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR WINNER - SILVER MEDAL, AXIOM BUSINESS BOOK AWARDS 2018 FOREWORD BY NOURIEL ROUBINI SuperHubs is a rare, behind-the-scenes look at the global financial system and the powerful personal networks through which it is run, at the centre of which sit the Elites - the SuperHubs. Combining an insider's knowledge with principles of network science, Sandra Navidi offers a startling new perspective on how the financial system really operates. SuperHubs reveals what happens at the exclusive, invitation-only platforms - The World Economic Forum in Davos, the meetings of the International Monetary Fund, think-tank gatherings, power lunches, charity events, and private parties. This is the most vivid portrait to date of the global elite: the bank CEOs, fund managers, billionaire financiers and politicians who, through their interlocking relationships and collective influence are transforming the future of our financial system and, for better or worse, shaping our world.
Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy
This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of election, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.
Growth Effects of Income and Consumption Taxes
The effects of income and consumption taxation are examined in the context of models in which the growth process is driven by the accumulation of human and physical capital. The different channels through which these taxes affect economic growth are discussed, and it is shown that in general the taxation of factor incomes (human and physical capital) is growth-reducing. The effects of consumption taxation on growth depend crucially on the elasticity of labor supply, and therefore on the specification of the leisure activity. The paper also derives some implications for the optimal intertemporal choice of tax instruments.
Offset and Sterilization Under Fixed Exchange Rates with an Optimizing Central Bank
The traditional approach to the estimation of the offset and sterilization equations can be criticized for the ad-hoc specification of the reaction function of the monetary authorities and the endogeneity of the domestic credit and foreign reserve variables in the estimated equations. The paper proposes an alternative analytical model where the sterilization and offset equations are derived from an explicit maximization problem solved by the monetary authority. In such a model, the optimal intervention and sterilization policies of the monetary authority are shown to be dependent on the different disturbances hitting the economy and the preferences of the monetary authority. In particular, under a wide range of domestic and foreign disturbances the optimal response of the central bank will lead to negatively correlated comovements of domestic credit and foreign reserves if the cer1tral bank cares more about the interest rate smoothing objective relative to the foreign exchange reserve stabilization goal. Conversely, positive correlations between domestic credit and foreign reserves will be observed if the foreign reserve objective is dominant.
Inflated
Americans as a whole view themselves as reasonably prudent and sober people when it comes to matters of money, reflecting the puritan roots of the earliest European settlers. Yet as a community, we also seem to believe that we are entitled to a lifestyle that is well-beyond our current income, a tendency that goes back to the earliest days of the United States and particularly to get rich quick experiences ranging from the Gold Rush of the 1840s to the real estate bubble of the early 21st Century. Inflated examines this apparent conflict and makes the argument that such a world view is so ingrained in us that to expect the United States to live in a "deflated" world is simply unrealistic. It...
