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Economic and fiscal outlook
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
HM Treasury: Autumn Statement 2013 - Cm. 8747
Despite the improvement in the public finances, this year's Autumn statement is fiscally neutral and locks in lower spending by reducing departmental budgets for 2014-15 and 2015-16 by 1.1% but excluding local government, Security & Intelligence Agencies and HMRC. The Government will: cap the Retail Prices Index in business rates to 2% in 2014-15 and extend the doubling of Small Business Rate Relief to April 2014; will provide a business rate discount of £1,000 in 2014-15 and 2014-16 for retail properties with a rateable value of up to £50,000 and a 50% discount from business rates for new occupants of previously empty retail premises for 18 months; abolish National Insurance Contributions...
Office for Budget Responsibility
This economic and fiscal outlook sets out the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for the period to 2016-17. The economy has grown less strongly than forecast in March primarily because higher-than-expected inflation has squeezed household incomes and consumer spending. The eurozone crisis has impacted on business and consumer confidence. Consequently the OBR has revised it growth forecasts downwards. It expects the underlying momentum of the economy to pick up through 2012 but with the headline measure of GDP broadly flat until the second half. The central forecast is now for 0.7 per cent growth in GDP in 20102, 2.1 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 ...
Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2013
This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSN...
Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management
Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.
The Green Book
This new edition incorporates revised guidance from H.M Treasury which is designed to promote efficient policy development and resource allocation across government through the use of a thorough, long-term and analytically robust approach to the appraisal and evaluation of public service projects before significant funds are committed. It is the first edition to have been aided by a consultation process in order to ensure the guidance is clearer and more closely tailored to suit the needs of users.
Office for Budget Responsibility
The 'Economic and Fiscal Outlook: November 2015 (Cm. 9153)' sets out forecasts up to 2020-21. It also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives that it has set itself, which were approved by Parliament in October 2015 update to the 'Charter for Budget Responsibility'. The 'Charter for Budget Responsibility' requires the OBR to judge whether the Government has a greater than 50 per cent chance of hitting its fiscal targets under existing policy. The current version of the Charter sets out the target for borrowing, debt and welfare spending that are assessed in this forecast: the fiscal mandate, which requires a surplus on public sector net borrowin...
Economic and fiscal outlook March 2012
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2016-17. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives. The OBR assessment of the outlook and risks for the UK economy is broadly unchanged since the November 2011 report. A technical recession will be avoided with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% for 2015-16 period. Public sector net borrowing is foreca...
