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Beyond Six Billion
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and d...
Cities Transformed
Over the next 20 years, most low-income countries will, for the first time, become more urban than rural. Understanding demographic trends in the cities of the developing world is critical to those countries - their societies, economies, and environments. The benefits from urbanization cannot be overlooked, but the speed and sheer scale of this transformation presents many challenges. In this uniquely thorough and authoritative volume, 16 of the world's leading scholars on urban population and development have worked together to produce the most comprehensive and detailed analysis of the changes taking place in cities and their implications and impacts. They focus on population dynamics, soc...
A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market ...
The New Texas Challenge
What will the future of Texas be? Will its population continue to increase, and if so how rapidly and where will this growth be most extensive? Will its wealth increase with its population, or will per capita levels of income and wealth decrease? What are the opportunities and challenges state government is likely to face in the first decades of the twenty-first century? A team led by State Demographer Steve H. Murdock examines these questions using new figures gathered in the decennial national census of 2000. From their analysis they are able to examine the effects of four major demographic trends that continue markedly to affect Texas and other parts of the nation. The New Texas Challenge explores: · changes in the rates and sources of population growth · the aging and age structure of the population · growth in the non-Anglo population · the changing composition of Texas households The intent is both to provide an overview of how far Texas has come and to suggest where it may be going under conditions prevailing in the first years of this century.
